2021 UCL Semifinals: Manchester City F.C. vs. Paris Saint-Germain F.C.: Preview & Best Bets – 4/28/2021

by Trent Pruitt (@trentbets) & Zack Lambert (@bigbird8224)

April 26th, 2021

Manchester City F.C. at Paris Saint-Germain F.C.

Spread: PSG (+0.5); O/U: 3; Moneyline: City +115, PSG +210, Draw +280

Time/Location: 3:00 ET, Parc des Princes, Paris, France

Zack’s Best Bet

Paris and Manchester City squaring off is one of the best possible outcomes for the semi-finals in my opinion. I would have loved to see them in the finals, but I’m very content with seeing them at such a pressing time regardless. These two teams are possibly the two best on the planet right now (don’t mind Ligue 1) and should match up to make some of the most entertaining matches of the year.

Manchester City were the favorites to win the title for most of the year, especially once we saw what they were able to do with rotating lineups and their tactics. I bring the player up constantly, but Rúben Dias brought with him a consistency and quality that the Citizens have desperately required for the past few years. When we talk about “the missing piece,” Dias might actually be that manifestation for City. The team are likely to approach this match with a full side and that will really make life difficult for Paris, but the quality on both sides is there.

I’ve been a PSG believer all season despite their struggles in Ligue 1 and the Champions League group stage. I don’t think that was a bold move on my part, thinking a team with two of the world’s five best players might have success, but it would be fair to think that they might crash out regardless. They’ve done it before and wouldn’t be a surprise to see it again, but this season seems different. The club have never won a UCL trophy and Neymar and Mbappé seem intent on changing that. The side are teaming through clubs, beating out Manchester City, Leipzig, Barcelona, and Bayern to get to this point and their performances keep getting stronger as they go on. It’s unclear whether or not Marquinhos will be available, but I believe Paris are capable of the upset regardless of his presence.

Last we saw Manchester City’s defense in this competition they were successful in shutting down Erling Håland, using their physicality and size to throw him off and keep him away from through balls. This time around the task won’t be so easy. Mbappé and Neymar won’t be deterred by such qualities and might actually thrive if that’s the strategy from Pep. This side has such skill that it’s just going to require pure quality to stop them and I’m not certain that any side has the amount required to stop this team. I like the PSG/Draw double chance at -145 as my best bet and if you want to put money on PSG to win outright at +210 I like that as well. Remember, this match is in Paris.

The Pick: PSG/Draw double chance at -145

-Zack Lambert (@bigbird8224)

Trent’s Best Bet

I’m completely with Zack on this one. This isn’t a cake walk to the final for City like a lot of people are saying. Manchester City has pretty much been dominant since the resumption of play last season after the COVID break but they’re drawing a really tough PSG side here. PSG is coming off a solid showing against the former Champs, Bayern Munchen, and they looked explosive in that matchup. Mbappe and Neymar ran up the score in the first leg and had a plethora of chances in the second. These two are clicking and I think they’ll give Manchester City some problems. 

I’m taking the over on PSG goals at 1 (-165) for a unit. I don’t see them getting shut out – especially at home. They’re playing exceptional offensively and are averaging 3.67 goals per match over their last three contests. Those three matches were against mid-table farmer’s league Ligue 1 opponents, but regardless, they’re still finding space and opportunities. I think we’re in for quite a few goals in this game. I’ve seen the total at 2.75 (-120) at Betonline.ag, which I also like. I’m not 100% sold on PSG’s defense and the play of Navas so I think City will be able to get on the board. But, my safest and most reliable bet that I’m locking in is the aforementioned over of 1 PSG tally (-165). We have the push to fall back on in case they don’t get a second goal and I don’t see the French side being held off of the scoresheet completely.

The Pick: Over 1 PSG Goal (-165)

-Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)

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