October 25, 2020

Lynq Sports

bet on it

Westchester Stakes G-3; Bel R7

Distance/Surface: 8.5 Furlongs Dirt

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite:):

  1. Endorsed 6-1
  2. Monongahela 4-1
  3. Mihos 10-1
  4. Payne 8-1
  5. Prendimi 50-1
  6. Joevia 20-1
  7. Senior Investment 10-1
  8. Forewarned 30-1
  9. **Code of Honor 6-5
  10. Wait for It 20-1
  11. Backsideofthemoon 20-1

Initial Thoughts: This will be the much-anticipated return of Code of Honor who was one of the best 3 year olds in the crop last year. His Travers win was one of the most impressive wins I saw all year. Off a 7 month layoff, he is the horse to beat. This is a large field with a decent amount of depth. Can any make the upset?

Horses I like:

  • Endorsed: This is just an honest hard knocking horse. This is the perfect distance for him, and I love that he’s in the Bill Mott barn now. I have no doubt this horse will be in the money and he’s got every chance to improve 2nd out as a 4-year-old.
  • Payne: How often do you get a Chad Brown horse that wins by 9 lengths in his last start at 8-1?! Well we get an opportunity here with Payne. Now, he moves up in class from the last start, but I don’t see why he can’t improve. He’s 2nd out as a 5 year old and has won his last 3 races by a combined 13 lengths. Love him at the price.
  • Mihos: Irad Ortiz is the hottest jockey in the county and he jumps off Monogahela to ride Mihos. He showed big improvement in his 2nd 4-year-old start winning by 3 ¼ lengths in an Optional claimer at GP. 10-1 on the morning line probably wont hold but you still will get value with this horse.
  • Senior Investment: This horse is hitting a little bit of a hot streak. He’s won his last 3 races by a combined 8 lengths including a 5 length win last out in a $100k stakes race at Laurel Park. He’s improving, working out great, and at a solid price!

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • Code of Honor: I’m not going to lie; I am nervous about leaving this horse off my ticket. But there are enough good horses in this race to try to beat him off the huge layoff. McGaughey is a good trainer but I don’t love him off long layoffs. The last long layoff this horse had was back in January 2019. He was coming off a huge effort in October of 2018 when he finished 2nd in the Grade 1 Champagne stakes. In January he came back in a much weaker Mucho Macho Man stakes. That day, he lost by 7 lengths as the 4-5 odds on favorite. Funny enough, a horse named Mihos won that race. I think CoH will have a great year, but in this spot he’s vulnerable.
  • Monogahela: There are 2 red flags for me on this horse at a short price. First off, he’s a Jason Servis trainee that has been forced to move to the Chad Brown barn. While Chad is a good trainer, I’m not going to trust any of these horses coming off the Servis juice. The other red flag is that Irad Ortiz jumps off the mount in favor of Mihos.

Top Pick:

Why not have Payne as the top pick here?! Chad Brown gave this horse a great prep in his 5 year old debut and I think he’s primed for a big effort.

Intercontinental Stakes G-3; Bel R8

Distance/Surface: 7 Furlongs Turf

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite:):

  1. Viadera 6-1
  2. Victim of Love 50-1
  3. Eyeinthesky 20-1
  4. Slimey 6-1 (MTO)
  5. Newspaperofrecord
  6. Jakarta 15-1
  7. Regal Glory 5-1
  8. Getmotherarose 10-1
  9. Rose Flower 8-1
  10. JC’s Shooting Star 30-1
  11. Saratoga Treasure 12-1
  12. **Significant Form 5-2

Initial Thoughts: I’m shocked that Newspaperofrecord is not the favorite on the ML but I think that will change by post time. This is not a strong field, so she will have no excuses if she loses here.

Horses I like:

  • Jakarta: A Mike Maker claim is making a huge jump in class after a nice win… Tell me how many times you’ve hear that before? This slimy trainer will have his day, but until then his juiced horses are impossible to leave off your ticket, especially at 15-1. I would have been concerned about her distance limitations if she hadn’t won at 8 furlongs last out. She’s working out great, and I will not be surprised at all if she steals this race.
  • Regal Glory: Her speed figures are nothing special. But who cares, she just loves to win races. She’s won 3 out of her last 4 races with her only loss coming to the great Cabier Parc. Jose Ortiz picks up the mount and she’s been working out well since the layoff.
  • Significant Form: This is such a drop-in class for this horse. She deserves to be your favorite even though I doubt she will be. The layoff doesn’t bother me here. Chad Brown rarely struggles with long layoffs. The outside post isn’t great, but there is enough speed to her inside, that she should be able to shuffle over and get a good stalking trip

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • Newspaperofrecord: She has failed as the favorite in 3 straight races! Now she comes back off an 8 month layoff as the favorite again?… I want no part of her. She was a beast as a 2 year old, but the rest of the crop has caught up to her. I like the cutback in distance for her and over the long term I do think she will be a better turf sprinter/miler. This will be a hot contested pace where Newspaperofrecord will not get an easy lead. Huge play against the favorite here!

Top Pick:

Jakarta is my top pick here. I just have a feeling he will fly out of the gate and dare the other Chad Brown’s to come catch him.

Carter Handicap G-1; Bel R 9

Distance/Surface: 7 Furlongs Dirt

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite:):

  1. Firenze Fire 7-2
  2. **Performer 3-1
  3. Still Having Fun 20-1
  4. Nitrous 15-1
  5. Network Effect 8-1
  6. Midnightcharly 50-1
  7. American Anthem 15-1
  8. Bon Raison 30-1
  9. Majestic Dunhill 20-1
  10. Mind Control 4-1
  11. Vekoma 7-2

Initial Thoughts: This is a very competitive Grade 1 with some horses looking to improve as they age. The Older male sprint and route divisions are wide open right now looking for an eventual stand out.  

Horses I like:

  • Performer: This is your deserving favorite here. Earlier in the card, I faded Code of Honor dude to McGaughey off the layoff. I’m less concerned here just because this has been a lightly raced dominant horse. McGaughey campaigned this horse patiently in his 3 year old season capping off with a monster win in the G3 Discovery Stakes. He has early speed and could even be your leader at 1st call. If not, he’s got great tactical speed to stalk off the other speed in the race. This just seems like a very promising colt. His workouts are sharp and Joel Rosario keeps the mount. He’s your ML favorite, but could easily float up in price.
  • Network Effect: I get Irad Ortiz and Chad Brown at 8-1 with this horse. Not to mention he won his last start in impressive fashion by 2 lenghts. This horse has finished 1st or 2nd in 7 out of his 8 career races. Do not discount at a great price.
  • Mind Control: Talk about a distance specialist. This horse loves 7-furlong races. He’s also won his last 3 races, granted by only the slimmest of margins. Velazquez knows this horse well and picks up the mount again here. He should get a great stalking trip and finish strong down the center of the track.

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • Firenze Fire: I just don’t trust this horse without the Servis juice. No knock against Kelly Breen, but I just don’t see this being the same horse we saw last year. It’s a shame because Firenze was fun to watch at his best.
  • Vekoma: Vekoma might turn out to be a very nice 1 turn hose. He won very impressively last out at Gulfstream. That being said, I just think his competitors are better than him at this point in his career. I wouldn’t be surprised if Vekoma went off as your favorite. I’m trying to beat at a short price.

Top Pick:

Thisis a great spot for Mind Control to win his 4th straight race. This horse just seems to know exactly where the wire is. He may be the best 7-furlong horse in North America. He loves New York, He loves the distance, and this isn’t the strongest Grade 1 field.

Alw $56,000; Bel Race 10

Distance/Surface: 6.5 Furlongs Dirt

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite:):

  1. Morgantwon 15-1
  2. Cryptographer 50-1
  3. More Graytful 10-1
  4. **Tale of the Union  8-5
  5. Centrist 30-1
  6. Quickflash 6-1
  7. Microscope 30-1
  8. Bulwark 10-1
  9. The Last Ace 8-1
  10. Thorny Tale 12-1
  11. Quintarelli 50-1
  12. Financialstability 5-1
  13. Tapizearance 20-1
  14. True Gold 50-1

Initial Thoughts: Wow talk about a huge field with so little talent in the race. I wouldn’t overthink this one here.

Horses I like:

  • Tale of the Union: Don’t expect to get 8-5 on this colt by post time. He’s only raced twice but man was he hyped when he broke his maiden by 8 lengths at Del Mar last summer. He followed up that effort with a dud and has been on the bench since. Ill give Baffert credit with his patience here. He spots him in a very realistic race against the weakest field he’s ever faced going a reasonable 6.5-furlong distance. If he fires, I don’t see anyone that will beat him.  
  • The Last Ace: Her maiden win was too impressive to ignore. She went right to the lead and then opened by 6 wrapped up in the end. If Tale of Union gets beat, this colt will be the one to do it.

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • Everyone else: This is a weak field except for the top 2. No need to look further.

Top Pick: Tale of the Union is the deserving favorite here. He’ll likely be the odds-on favorite at post. Baffert doesn’t run in state bred races that often, but I have a feeling he is looking to campaign this colt in the lucrative state bred stakes circuit in New York this summer. This is the perfect placement to start a campaign like that and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this colt against open company by the end of year. (Single)

MSW 64$k; Bel Race 11

Distance/Surface: 8 Furlongs Turf

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite:):

  1. Fixation 50-1
  2. Zuzudini 30-1
  3. Mr. Jaggers 5-1
  4. Turn of events 8-1
  5. Bubba Chuck 30-1
  6. **Lonesome Fugitive 5-2
  7. Voodoo Zip 3-1
  8. Height 12-1
  9. Red Flag Alert 8-1
  10. Red Storm Risen 15-1
  11. Mischieg Afoot 12-1
  12. Bay Street Money 15-1

Initial Thoughts: To end the day, we have a wide open MSW going a mile on the turf. Chad Brown has the tepid favorite and I could see him floating up in price. Most of the field is lightly raced, with a couple first time starters as well. I will be leaning towards the first-time starters and 1 time starters that have more room for improvement.

Horses I like:

  • Red Flag Alert: I like this colt at first asking. First off, trainer George Weaver hits at 21% of his first time starters. Red Flag Alert sold for a whopping $600,000 last year. He’s sired by the great Ghostzapper with a dam that was stakes placed herself. I like that Weaver has sent this colt long at 1st asking which shows tremendous confidence that he will fire first time out.
  • Bay Street Money: Another first time starter here. He is the son of Street Sense and a stakes winning mare by Dyanaformer. Jerkens wins 20% of his routes. Again, I like when trainers show confidence in their first-time starters by sending them long in their maiden race.
  • Lonesome Fugitive: The favorite is worth keeping on your ticket too. He finished 2nd in his debut race, looking green down the lane. The Chad Brown/Ortiz combo is always dangerous. There is very little else in the race.

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • Voodoo Zip: I don’t like how this horse keeps dropping in class while burning money at the windows. He failed as the favorite in his last race and is now off a 2 month layoff. The price is bad too.
  • Mr. Jaggers: Great name, but this is another horse that keeps dropping in class. Bill Mott and Rosario will take money at the windows, just not any of mine.  

Top Pick:

Red Flag Alert is my top pick. I don’t think this is a very strong field, so I’m looking for a promising unraced colt. He is well bred, working out well, and lines up against a weak maiden field. His connections have confidently placed him so why shouldn’t I have confidence in him as well.

Final Ticket: 1,3,4,7/6,7,12/3,5,10/4/6,9,12; $54 for .50 cent base