AFC Championship: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Staff Best Bets – 1/24/2021

By: NFL Content Staff

This will be the first time in history that a team has hosted three straight Conference Championship games. Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs will look to move to 2-1 in those games as they square off against Josh Allen and the Bills Sunday night. We have plenty of action on this game so let’s dive into what we’ll be betting in the AFC Championship!

Spread: BUF +3 (-105) | KC -3 (-115)

Money Line: BUF (+142) | KC (-162)

Total: 54 (O -115, U -105)

Kickoff: 5:40 CT | Arrowhead Stadium | Kansas City, MO

Trent’s Best Bet

Let’s waste no time and get right into where I’ll be laying my money on Sunday night. Surprisingly, I’m taking the under 54 (-105) for a unit. Yes, these offenses boast big play ability and rank numbers two and six in points scored, but this is the playoffs – it’s a whole different animal. First off, I think the Chiefs get ahead early in this game where they’ll look to be semi-conservative moving forward – I mean, as conservative as Andy Reid has the capability of being. For real though, I believe that Kansas City has proven that they can win the “ugly games” where you have to rely on the run game and chew some clock. Additionally, there’s no doubt in my mind that Kansas City is going to win the turnover battle. The Bills have turned the ball over 22 times this season, which ranks 20 in the league in that category. They play loose and that lackadaisical culture that they have in Buffalo will come back to haunt them against a team like the Chiefs. The final point on the under is that Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been practicing this week. That’ll give Reid the option to mix in the power run game and keep the clock moving.

For my favorite prop bet, I’m rolling with the under on Josh Allen passing touchdowns at 2.5 (-164) for a unit. I don’t even think the Bills are going to score three touchdowns as a team, let alone Allen pass for three. He’s only thrown for three this postseason and when these teams faced off in October, he threw for only 122 yards and two touchdowns. 

-Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)

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