by Zack Lambert
June 26, 2020
Deportivo Alavés at Atlético Madrid
Spread: Atlético (-1.5); O/U: 2.5
Moneyline: Alavés +1000, Atlético -305, Draw +380
Time/Location: 4:00 ET, Wanda Metropolitano, Madrid, Spain
Deportivo Alavés (DLWLL)
Alavés have struggled this season on most fronts, allowing goals with regularity and struggling to score when it’s needed most. They’ve also struggled to keep eleven men on the field recently as they’ve been shown a red in three of their last four matches. They currently sit 14th in La Liga, but no thanks to any type of unit cohesion. The team is pretty old overall and relies on a 4-4-2 that allows far too many shots.
Joselu and Lucas Pérez are the goal scorers on the team as they’ve combined for 20 total and are the only two players with over two goals on the season. Due to their lack of playmaking talent in the midfield, Alavés are forced to play an aggressive defensive game, often in their own half of the pitch. The central defense is shaky and the goalkeeping is suspect, so don’t expect a clean sheet against a team like their opponents this Saturday.
Atlético Madrid (WDWWW)
If there’s a team in the world that was more posed for a big run than Atléti before the break, I would love to know who it was. They were on a nice run in the league and had just knocked out Liverpool from the Champions League in one of the more thrilling matches of the season. It’s unfortunate that Los Colchoneros had such an inconsistent first half of the season because they could easily be tied up with Real and Barcelona had they shown some integrity early.
Regardless, the team has recovered well and should be able to make a nice run to close out the season. Despite some of the bigger names on the team not playing their greatest football like Jan Oblak, João Félix, Diego Costa, and Thomas Lemar there’s still been a great uptick of talent all over the field. The central defending has been nearly unbeatable, Kieran Trippier has turned his career around at right back, Thomas Partey is now one of the best defensive midfielders in world football, Koke and Saúl have been a terror on the left side, and Álvaro Morata has turned the clock back. The whole team is playing with conviction, and while they might not be able to catch the two at the top, some distance between themselves and Sevilla might be the best thing to keep some momentum rolling into next season.
Analysis and Pick
With the scoring issues that Alavés have displayed over the course of the season along with the discipline issues, I can’t see anything other than an Atléti win here. At -305 that isn’t great value, but we can find some better numbers in the spread and the total.
Atléti aren’t usually a side to obliterate teams considering they start a bit slower, and that shouldn’t change against a team that will just be playing not to get blown out. Taking Atlético +1.5 at -115 is a winning play, as will be the under. Atléti’s past two matches have been against Valladolid and Levante and they’ve both ended in 1-0 wins. Each of those opponents has a better defense than Alavés so getting a second shouldn’t be too difficult for Atléti. With the under at -115, it’s also the smarter play.
A 2-0 win for the Madrid club is in the books.