By: Trent Pruitt
As essentially everyone except the bookmakers expected, the Twins and Yankees lit up the scoreboard in Game 1 of the ALDS. The final went to the Bronx Bombers by a score of 10-4. There were five homeruns in total, all solo shots. That included a bomb by the surprise Yankees 3-hitter, Brett Gardner. I said it before the game, during the game, and I’ll say it now – I loved that move for yesterday’s game. Brett had excellent numbers against Berrios, I think 4-7 with a double and 3 RBI’s going into the matchup – way to play the statistics Aaron Boone.
Money Line: NYY -175, MIN +165
Run Line: NYY -1.5 (+103), MIN +1.5 (-123)
Over/Under: 9.5 (O +100, U -120)
First Pitch: 5:07 ET, Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, NY
My guess is the Twins will save Odorizzi for Game 3 of the series back at Target field considering the move to start Randy Dobnak in Game 2 in New York. The righty has made 9 appearances in 2019 for the Twins and 5 of those were starts. He’s 2-1 on the year with a 1.59 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. One split that stands out for Dobnak is his away ERA, which comes in at 0.59. There isn’t really a huge sample size to go off of here plus he has no head-to-head statistics against the Yankees.
New York Yankees
Countering for New York will be 5-year vet out of Japan, Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka has had a respectable season for the Pinstripes with his 11-9 record and a 4.45 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He closed the year out with a 3.84 ERA in September and the team was 2-3 in those starts. Tanaka is one of those guys that loves pitching in his home park as the splits have him at a 3.10 vs 6.05 in terms of ERA and for WHIP, 1.09 at home vs 1.42 on the road. As for head-to-head’s, he holds the Twins to a .200 (20-100) batting average. The only Twin to really have sustained success off of the righty is Jonathan Schoop, who owns 9 of those 20 hits with 3 bombs and a .290 average overall.
Analysis & Prediction
This is a tough call in this game considering we are dealing with Randy Dobnak who I personally have never watched pitch and there aren’t many statistics that are applicable. One statistic that came courtesy of MLB.com was that Dobnak has a groundball rate of almost 53%, giving me the idea that Twins skipper, Rocco Baldelli wants to keep the ball in the park this afternoon and obviously get those groundball outs. If Dobnak can do that, throw a couple of double plays, and pitch to his 0.59 road ERA then the move in this game will be the under of 9.5. On the flip side, Tanaka is much better at home and he has the playoff experience where his ERA and WHIP are 1.50 and 0.80, respectively. The play for the ALDS Game 2 is to throw a unit on the under at 9.5 (-120). Happy #WinnersOnlySaturday everyone – let’s stay hot!
Trent’s Record on MLB Postseason Picks
2-1 (+0.60). A $100 bettor is up $60.
For more sports talk, follow me on Twitter – @the_real_pruitt