By: Matt Szeliga
Moneyline: Atalanta +145, Inter Milan +170, Draw +270
Over/Under: @ 1.5 Over -700, Under + 500 | @ 2.5 Over -215, Under +170
Time/Location: 08/01/2020 2:45 ET, Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo, Italy
Atalanta has immensely surpassed expectations this season, and since January are unbeaten in their past 19 matches in all competitions. Atalanta is holding third place in Serie A with 78 points ahead of Lazio due to a greater goal differential and one point behind Inter Milan. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side is leading Serie A in goals scored with 49 of the 98 goals scored were from Luis Muriel, Duvan Zapata, and Josip Ilicic. The +53 goal differential Atalanta had this season was the best in Serie A.
Gian Piero Gasperini will be looking to control the pace of an attacking heavy Inter Milan who has proven to be poor defensively this season. Though Atalanta has secured their top three position they must win this game to prove they are a formidable foe in the Champions League quarter-finals. The last time Atalanta faced Inter Milan they held 64% of possession proving they’ve handled this type of opponent.
Inter Milan (WWDDW)
In their past two fixtures Inter Milan is playing like the team they were expected to be, but Antonio Conte still expressed his displeasure of falling behind to Juventus this season. By far Inter Milan’s offense has been their strong suit this season, as leading team goalscorers Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez have been hot. Manchester United forward on loan to Inter Milan Alexis Sanchez has reportedly agreed to take a pay cut to remain in Serie A. Antonio Conte is known for his end of the season toughness and hopefully can get the best of his side in an important match.
Inter Milan is one point ahead of Atalanta in the table making this match a necessity to win. Since play has resumed Conte’s side has only lost one of their past 12 fixtures in a tireless effort to overtake Juventus. Conte stated, “Such situations are important because, even if you don’t get any trophies for finishing in second place, getting used to feeling pressure is important.” Inter Milan is sure to come out the gates striking in an attempt to retain their 2nd place in Serie A.
Analysis and Pick
Antonio Conte has vocalized the impotence he finds in this final match of the season against an Atalanta side who hasn’t been defeated since January. Caesar’s Sportsbook currently has the O/U 2.5 over at -215 straight, I’m recommending betting the over at 2.5 as my lock. Both teams see this match as a must-win and it looks like it could be a shootout.
My value bet is Atalanta straight at +145 because this win could provide them a great jump into their Champions League quarter-finals match. When a team plays with as much composure as Atalanta it’s hard to believe the weak Inter Milan defense will be able to hold them back.