By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)
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Money Line: BAL +200 | CWS -215
Run Line: BAL +1.5 (-101) | CWS -1.5 (-112)
Total: 8.5 (O -109, U -109)
First Pitch: 7:10 CDT | Guaranteed Rate Field | Chicago, IL
Pitching Matchup: Matt Harvey (3-5, 6.31 ERA) vs. Dallas Keuchel (3-1, 4.28 ERA)
We cashed both bets last night in the opener between the Orioles and White Sox! We’re slowly climbing out of the hole that we dug so let’s stay hot and keep running it up over the weekend. You know who’s not hot? The Orioles. They’ve now lost ten straight contests after the 5-1 White Sox win last night. Let’s get into the starting pitching matchups and get a bet locked in for tonight.
Baltimore Orioles (27-33)
It’ll be Matt Harvey toeing the rubber for the O’s and he’s 3-5 on the season with a 6.31 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. He’s punched out 36 hitters in 2021 which is tied for 115th amongst pitchers in the bigs. The righty out of Connecticut hasn’t been great over the last few starts as he’s given up 18 runs over 10.2 innings spanning three starts against the Mets, Rays, and Nationals. Harvey has now lost four straight decisions for Baltimore. As for his pitch arsenal, he’s averaging 93 mph on his 4-seamer which he uses 41.3% of the time. He mixes in a sinker 21.8% of the time, slider at a 17.4% clip, changeup at 10.1%, and finally, a curveball 9.4% of the time. As for Matt Harvey’s splits, he has a 7.03 ERA away from Camden Yards and a 1.69 WHIP.
The sticks were silenced last night by Dylan Cease as the Orioles were only able to muster up one run on five hits. The lone run came from a Freddy Galvis homer to right field. That’s one guy I omitted from the preview yesterday. Galvis can swing it fairly well. He’s hitting .253 on the season with seven yabos and 18 RBI’s. One thing Orioles faithful will hate to see is Trey Mancini missing extended time. According to the Baltimore Sun, there were no breaks in his elbow after taking a 95 mph fastball yesterday in the first innning. Not sure if he’ll be back in the lineup tonight. Hopefully Mancini won’t be out long, he’s a great ball player and fun guy to watch.
Chicago White Sox (29-20)
Tony La Russa will opt for the lefty in Dallas Keuchel tonight as the White Sox look for their fourth win in five attempts. Last time out, Dallas went just 4.0 innings against the Yankees and allowed three runs, although only one was earned. It was a 100 pitch outing which yielded twelve ground balls, three fly balls, and four punchouts. Vintage Keuchel utilizing the sinker to force grounders. Overall on the season the southpaw is 3-1 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.
It took until my arrival in the 6th inning for the White Sox bats to really get going last night. I was driving home and offered a ticket in the 5th inning of the game so I said, “sure, why not go grab a cold Bud Light and enjoy some maskless White Sox baseball in person.” Upon my entry, Billy Hamilton laced an RBI single to give the Sox a 2-1 lead. And in the seventh, the order rolled over and Chicago tagged on three more runs thanks to hits from Madrigal, Abreu, and the Yerminator (and a walk from Moncada). That helped cover our run line bet last night. Overall the Sox offense is now third in batting average at .256. They were second entering yesterday’s game and somehow dropped a spot despite racking up 12 hits last night.
Final Analysis & Best Bet
With the current form that Matt Harvey and the Orioles are in, this is a no brainer to fade them. Give me the White Sox money line (-215) for three units tonight. The Dark Knight has given up 18 runs over three starts and is facing one of the best lineups in the league tonight. The Sox lineup has slashed .290/.365/.436 against Harvey with Yasmani Gradnal going 4-11 with a homer. Chicago leads the league in BABIP at .317 and against a guy that doesn’t strike out many batters (10th percentile, 17.0%), that could spell trouble.
I’m also going to bet Dallas Keuchel records a win at -112 for two units. Keuchel’s held this Orioles roster to 3-22 in head-to-heads with no extra base hits. He’s had a nice May, going 2-0 over four starts and posting a 3.80 ERA. And as long as things are looking decent, his longevity in this game shouldn’t be an issue as he’s thrown 100+ pitches in his last two outings. Let’s hope there is strong defense behind him tonight and the Sox are able to get to Harvey early and often. Good luck tonight and let’s get on a winning streak!
Trent’s MLB Betting Record
2021 MLB Season: 25-26-1 (8.45 units). A $100 bettor is down $845.19 this MLB szn – yikes.