By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)
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Money Line: BAL +200 | CWS -216
Run Line: BAL +1.5 (+100) | CWS -1.5 (-118)
Total: 8.5 (O -109, U -109)
First Pitch: 7:10 CDT | Guaranteed Rate Field | Chicago, IL
Pitching Matchup: Bruce Zimmerman (2-3, 5.59 ERA) vs. Dylan Cease (2-1, 3.18 ERA)
The White Sox enter this four-game set coming off of taking two of three from the first place Cardinals. As for the O’s, they haven’t won since May 16th when they bet the Yankees 10-6. Since then they’ve been swept in three games by the Rays, Nationals, and Twins. Nine straight L’s for Baltimore. Let’s get into the matchup for game one and lock in a bet or two.
Baltimore Orioles (17-32)
Baltimore currently resides in the cellar of the East with a record of 17-32 and they’re 13.0 games back of Tampa for first place. They’re a better team away from home where they boast a record of 11-14 compared to their 6-18 mark at Camden Yards. They’ll opt for a rookie lefty in Bruce Zimmerman to toe the rubber. Zimmerman’s 2-3 on the season with a 5.59 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and a K/9 rate of 6.98. He’s coming off of his shortest outing of his career that saw him only go 3.0 innings against Washington and yield five earned runs on seven hits and a walk. As for his pitch arsenal, he relies on the 4-seamer 44.6% of the time and mixes in a changeup at a 26.2% rate. The young lefty goes with a slider 14.7% of the time and a curveball 14.5%. There’s a lot of discrepancy amongst stats so I had a tough time locating the exact at-bat, but Baseball Savant has it showing that Bruce Zimmermann gave up the hardest batted ball in the majors in 2021 at 119.3 mph.
As for the bats of the Orioles, they’re 14th in batting average (.235), 23rd in OBP (.301), and 19th in slugging percentage (.384). Trey Mancini is one of the main players you have to look out for. He’s jacked 11 longballs this season and is hitting .278 on the season with 42 RBI’s.
Chicago White Sox (28-20)
Dylan Cease gets the nod from Tony La Russa tonight and he’ll be making his tenth start of the campaign. He’s posted a 2-1 record in 2021 to go along with a 3.18 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He’s held opposing offenses to three runs or less in eight out of nine starts with the only exception being his last outing against the Yankees. Cease gave up five runs over 4.1 innings of work last Saturday against New York. But other than that start, he’s been extremely dependable.
The White Sox offense has been a bit worrisome over the past week. Aside from putting up eight against the Cardinals in one game, they haven’t been producing at as high of a mark as we’ve been accustomed to in 2021. They’re still fourth in team batting average (.254) and second in OBP (.342) but are dropping down in the slugging category where they rank 12th at .402. They’ll have a big opportunity to break out tonight.
Final Analysis & Best Bet
I’ve been getting my cheeks clapped with my MLB wagers this season. I’m straight up not having a good time. The other night I essentially went big on Jack Flaherty and the Cardinals and that backfired tremendously. The Cardinals defense was abysmal and I was left standing there with three losing tickets. Anyways… It’s a new day. It’s a new series. It’s time to get this train moving in the right direction. It’s going to be an uphill battle to get back to positive money. And it may take weeks or even months. But if anyone can do it, it’s going to be us. So strap it in and let’s start running it up on the diamond. Here’s what I taking tonight:
I’m all White Sox tonight. Give me three units on the White Sox money line (-216) and two on the run line (-1.5, -118). This is basically a fade of the Zimmermann. He ranks in the 27th percentile in average exit velocity, 25th in hard hit percentage, and seventh in xERA. That’s not good. To add onto that, the Sox are the best team against left-handed pitching with a .260 wOBA and .344 BABIP. Going up against a guy that ranks in the 12th percentage in K% and 33rd in whiff%, they should be putting the ball in play quite a bit tonight. And good things happen when they hit the ball against lefties. So take the Sox tonight. This game should be a blowout.
Trent’s MLB Betting Record
2021 MLB Season: 23-26-1 (11.54 units). A $100 bettor is down $1,153.57 this MLB szn – yikes.