October 25, 2020

Lynq Sports

bet on it

Belmont Stakes: All G-1 Pick 3

Acorn Stakes G-1; Bel R8

Distance/Surface: 8 Furlongs Dirt

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite:):

  1. **Gamine 1-1
  2. Lucrezia 9-2
  3. Walter White 10-1
  4. Casual 3-1
  5. Glass Ceiling 20-1
  6. Pleasant Orb 20-1
  7. Perfect Alibi 5-1

Initial Thoughts: This horse is headlined by another possible monster from Bob Baffert. Gamine is 2-0 in her short career moving straight from optional claimer company to a grade 1. Lucky for her, few connections had the guts to take her on. The short field of 7 is rounded out by contenders from the Asmussen and Casse barns.

Horses I like:

  • Gamine: I think the likely odds on favorite will be tough to beat here. She showed massive improvement in her second start posting a big speed figure along with holding off a formidable challenger in Speech. Now she cuts back in distance which I think she will prefer, especially being the daughter of Into Mischief. Its no secret that Baffert ships to win (31%). I also love when Baffert gives his horses quick 6 furlong works before a big race. He’s given Gamine 2 quick 6f works in June. The cherry on top is Velazquez riding. For my money, there’s no one in the country I’d rather have on my horse.

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • Lucrezia: This filly was dominant at Tampa before moving to Gulfstream to try and win the Oaks. There she came up 3 lengths short to Swiss Skydiver. While there is no shame in losing to that fabulous filly, Lucrezia was losing steam at the end and was nearly caught by 2 other horses. That was despite setting fairly slow fractions up front with Swiss Skydiver. Her wins at Tampa haven’t come back strong either. No horse from either of her winning races has come back to triumph. I’ll let her beat me.
  • Perfect Alibi: She was a great 2 year old, but has now off a 7 month layoff. Her speed figures do not match up to the 2020 starters and while I expect her to improve in her 3 year old campaign, I think debuting in this spot is a lot to ask.
  • Casual:  If she breaks well then she will have a shot to beat Gamine out of the gate. Despite this, I’m not convinced how good Casual’s wins were. Only 1 horse in either field has come back to win. This son of Curlin should like the longer route distances, but at 8 furlongs, I will try to beat.

Top Pick:

Don’t worry we will try to beat the favorites in the next 2 legs. But here, swallow the chalk with confidence and lay it on Gamine. Single!

Jaipur Stakes G-1; Bel R9

Distance/Surface: 6 Furlongs Turf

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite:):

  1. Kanthaka 10-1
  2. Oleksandra 7-2
  3. Texas Wedge 4-1
  4. **Pure Sensation 5-2
  5. Stubbins 3-1
  6. Hidden Scroll 8-1
  7. White Flag 8-1
  8. Lonhtwist 50-1

Initial Thoughts: Again, I hate to be the guy that complains about short fields. But common, how does the Jaipur only draw 8 horses in what looks like a wide open race. Great sprinters like World of Trouble and Disco Partner have recently allowed the Jaipur to be upgraded to a grade 1. After this year, I wouldn’t be shocked if the race was downgraded back to a G-2.

Horses I like:

  • Hidden Scroll: Please don’t laugh at me, but I think the time has come to finally come for Hidden Scroll to bounce back. Obviously, this might be the most overhyped horse in the last 5 years after his monster 3 year old debut last January at Gulfstream park. Since then he has only won 1 race which was a weak optional claimer. He’s been the favorite in nearly every start of his career. Until now that is. At 8-1 I think he is a very fair price. He lost the rider in his turf debut just 2 weeks ago. Now, Bill Mott brings him back right away for a grade 1 sprint?! Mott is as patient as they come, he would not enter here if he didn’t think he had a shot. Velazquez takes the mount and despite the stiff competition here, Hidden Scroll will likely be the quickest out of the gate. He could steal this one at a price. And if he does…. Never bet him again because he’ll be even money the rest of his career…
  • Texas Wedge: Good luck leaving off a Peter Miller sprinter off your ticket. He specializes in turf sprinters, not to mention he is 27% 2nd off a layoff. In his last 6 starts he has either won or been within 1 ¾ lengths of the winner. He’ll be there at the end.
  • Oleksandra: This horse had a terrible start in his 6 year old debut, but holy she came flying late and nearly caught Jolie Olimpica who was the odds on favorite that day. I expect a better start today and the extra half furlong should suit her perfectly. Rosario riding is the cherry on top.

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • Pure Sensation: She failed as the favorite last out and is off a 7-month layoff. Clement is a high percentage trainer but only hits at 14% of such layoffs. At a short price there are plenty of other options to go with.
  • White Flag: Another Clement horse off a long layoff. Talented, but I think he’ll need the race.
  • Stubbins: I really don’t know what to make of this horse. For a minute he looked like he might go on the Kentucky derby trail. After a poor showing at the UAE derby he went back to turf sprinting and has been very good. Notice that Rosario rode for Stubbins at his peak but choses Oleksandra instead. Not a good sign. Will try to beat at a low price.

Top Pick:

Oleksandra is my top pick. Her last race was too impressive to ignore. I also love that the connections are confident enough to take on the boys! I think the 6 furlongs is her perfect distance as well. With plenty of pace, Rosario will close like a freight train on this horse.

Belmont Stakes G-1; Bel R10

Distance/Surface: 9 furlongs dirt

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite):

  1. Tap It to Win 6-1
  2. Sole Volante 9-2
  3. Max Player 15-1
  4. Modernist 15-1
  5. Farmington Road 15-1
  6. Fore Left 30-1
  7. Jungle Runner 50-1
  8. **Tiz the Law 6-5
  9. Dr. Post 5-1
  10. Pneumatic 8-1

Initial Thoughts:  Here we are at the Belmont stakes! While it’s not the 1 1/2 mile test of champions, it is still a competitive triple crown race. Lets enjoy!

Horses I like:

  • Tap It To Win: The fractions from his last race were ultra impressive: 22.65, 45.64, 1:09.39, and 1:33.39. He took the field gate to wire geared down in the end by 5 lengths. Also notice, that the other horses near the lead faded terribly. The next 3 horses behind Tap It To Win finished 4th, 5th, and 8th. He’ll clearly be the pacesetter here, but even if he breaks slow, he’ll be able to rate like he did 2 races back.
  • Dr. Post: I know its weird to call the Belmont a derby prep, but here we are. Who wins more derby preps than Pletcher? Not many. Dr. Post is lightly raced, but won both of his 2020 races impressively including after a terrible trip in the unbridled stakes. He’s bred to run all day, and although this is a step up in class, there is nothing to suggest he can’t handle.
  • Pneumatic:  I’m going to forgive his last start where he only lost by 1 ½ lengths to Maxfield. Lets be honest, Maxfield would be the favorite in this race if he were entered. It was also his first time in stakes company and first time around 2 turns. 2 races back Pneumatic was 4 wide the whole way while tugging against the jockey. He prevailed by 2.5 lengths to Captain Bombastic. Captain Bombastic came back to win a stakes race at Belmont next out. Pnematics class is strong and fits here at a good price.

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • Tiz the Law: Listen, Tiz could clearly romp this field. But at the odds on price he’s going to likely be, my question to you is… Are we sure Tiz the Law is elite?! I’m not so sure. Let’s take a look at the horses that he has beaten. He has beaten Shivaree, Ete Indien, Gouvener Morris, Annu D’Or, and Green Light Go. I think we can all agree that none of those horses are world beaters. Don’t get me wrong, Tiz is a very honest hard working horse and he will certainly hit the board. But at an odds on price, I want no part of him. There are plenty of talented horses in this race to take him on.
  • Sole Volante: This is another honest hard trying horse, but at a short price, he’s not nearly as good as Tiz the Law. He is a known. If I’m against Tiz, I should be against Sole too.

Top Pick:

Dr. Post is my top pick. He is bred to run all day, and might have been the only horse in here that would have preferred the mile and ½ distance. But he’s lightly raced, improving, draws Irad Ortiz, and shows no signs that he doesn’t belong here. The point is we are going to try and beat an overbet Tiz the Law