Campbell +28.5 @ Coastal Carolina: I loved Coastal Carolina last week and even included them as part of my best bets. They did not disappoint me as they destroyed Kansas 38-23. But lets look at the box score a little more closely. Kansas actually outgained CC 367 to 318 yards (Caveat was Kansas had 13 more plays than CC). Kansas also averaged 5 yards per play against CC including 4.7 yards per carry. The moral of the story is, that CC isn’t great at stopping the run yet. Also, due to +3 turnover differential, CC had an average starting field position of the 43-yard line. I don’t expect them to have such luck against Campbell, better known as the fighting camels! Campbel nearly upset Georgia Southern last week as 28 point underdogs! This was not a fluke either. They outgained GA Southern and averaged an outstanding 6.4 yards per play. Their running attack balances their pass game well. The point is Campbell is not a terrible FCS team and is getting way too many points here. Also, the weather is calling for rain and a soggy field. Both will help the underdog in this spot.
Tulsa/OK State over 66: Lets start with the fact that taking overs in the Big12 is almost always a good thing. Mike Gundy’s team this year should have an awesome offense. They have a Heisman Trophy contender at RB in Chuba Hubbard. QB Spencer Sanders returns at QB along with his top wider receiver Tylan Wallace. Gundy has also been quoted saying that he wants to play “uptempo” this season. That’s impressive considering they were a pretty fast tempo team to begin with. I don’t think Tulsa will make many stops. They missed 9 practices during the month of August and didn’t have their first padded practice until August 29th. I think this will hurt them mostly on the defensive side of the ball. On the offense, they return 88% of their offensive production last year. They will be able to get points of their own. Take over 66!
Tulane -6.5 vs. Navy: I know Tulane took a while to get going against South Alabama last week. But are you really going to blame any team for getting off to a slow start this year? I will blame Navy however for not even showing signs of life against BYU. Navy played so poorly last week that one of their QB’s decided to transfer after the game. While BYU was a good team, it was just shocking to see how bad Navy’s line play was. Tulane is a very similar team to BYU. They have a dominate front 7 that is fifth in tackles for loss right now. I like the adjustments Tulane made in the second half last week and I think that team is much closer to how talented they actually are. Navy’s O-line is so bad, that I just don’t know how they will score anything against a good Tulane defense. Take Tulane -6.5.
SMU/North Texas ov 67.5: Both of these teams can score. SMU’s great offense should be a surprise to no one as they return of the of 2019’s best offenses. Despite having a brand new qb, North Texas exploded on offense last week putting up 57 points and 721 yards. Granted it was against Houston Baptist, but notice too that they gave up 31 points and 569 yards to Houston Baptist. SMU’s offense is 10x better than that. I wouldn’t be surprised if SMU put up 50+ in this game. Don’t get caught up in SMU’s slow start on the road last week. They had a lot of bad luck including getting 2 touchdowns called back by penalty. Take over 67.5!
Syracuse +21.5 @ Pittsburg: I’m sorry, I know Syracuse is bad, but Pitt shouldn’t be laying over 3 touchdowns to them. Cuse’s final score to UNC was misleading. They actually were within 1 point going to the 4th quarter before they fell off the rails. Their defense held a very good UNC offense to 7 points prior to that 4th quarter which is very encouraging. Pitt is an offense that is trying to transition from a run heavy offense to an aerial attack. I’m not convinced that QB Pickett is the man for the job. He only threw 13 TD’s in 2019 despite throwing the ball 56% of the time. Not to mention, this is still a rivalry game that typically stays closer than it should. Take Cuse plus the points!
Michael’s 2020 Best Bet Record: 4-1; 80%