By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)
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Money Line: CWS +110 | BOS -110
Run Line: CWS +1.5 (-175) | BOS -1.5 (+155)
Total: 9 (O -115, U -105)
First Pitch: 3:05 CDT | Fenway Park | Boston, MA
Pitching Matchup: Cease (0-0, 3.86 ERA) vs. Pivetta (2-0, 3.27 ERA)
It was a snowy one yesterday in Boston and that led to Friday’s game being canceled. But we’re back in action this afternoon as the White Sox and Red Sox open up a 4-game set. As for yesterday’s game, it will be pushed to Sunday where the teams will play two 7-inning games before wrapping up the series on Monday. Let’s dive into the nitty gritty and talk about the White Sox and the piping hot Red Sox who have now gone 9-1 over their last 10 games.
Chicago White Sox (6-7)
The White Sox enter at 6-7 and they’re having issues getting over the .500 mark early in the year. They’ve had six opportunities to exceed the .500 threshold yet the Southsiders are 0-6 in those attempts. Tony La Russa and his squad will turn to Dylan Cease this afternoon to try and get them back to even in the standings. Cease is 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA to go along with a 1.61 WHIP. Over 9.1 innings pitched this season he has accumulated six free passes and he ranks in the 18th percentile of all major leaguers in 2021 in BB%. That has always been his issue and if he can limit the walks, he’s going to be a solid starter for Chicago.
Offensively, it’s been a rollercoaster of a year so far. The Sox are 16th in team batting average (.233), 8th in runs scored (65), and 22nd in homers (13). I expected quite a bit of run production in Thursday’s finale with the Tribe, especially with the lineup Tony rolled out, but it wasn’t meant to be. But it was great to have Tim Anderson back in the batting order. He went 2-5 in his first game back with a couple of knocks.
Boston Red Sox (9-4)
Alex Cora has taken the reins of the Red Sox this season and he’ll opt for a righty in Nick Pivetta to open up the series with the visiting White Sox. Pivetta is 2-0 on the season with a 3.27 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Over the two starts, he’s relied on the 4-seamer 51.3% of the time and also uses a slider (33.2%), and curveball (15%). He’s thrown 11.0 innings and has 11 punchouts compared to 7 walks. The walks are a little higher than you’d like to see as he ranks in the 16th percentile in major league baseball.
The BoSox boast one of the best offenses in the league as they rank second in team batting average (.273), third in runs (75), and 11th in homeruns (16th). The two-headed monster of the lineup is J.D. Martinez who slashes .378/.440/.867 and Xander Bogaerts who slashes .370/.431/.457. It’s a pretty solid lineup overall, but if you can limit J.D. Martinez from leaving the yard, you’ll be in a lot better shape.
Final Analysis & Best Bet
Similar to the White Sox, we’re struggling to get over the even money mark to start the season. We lost our last bet and that dropped us back under two units on the season. Luckily for us, we have plenty of ball left this season to get back into the profitability range.
It’s #WinnersOnlySaturday and I’m taking the over on 9 runs (-115) today for 1.5 units. These pitchers walk a ton of batters and with the boppers in each of the lineups, you don’t want to give up a longball with 2-3 guys on base. Cease and Pivetta also have pretty high WHIPs, so there will be a lot of offensive opportunities today. The only thing that would worry me is that the weather will be right around 40 degrees. But with both teams being accustomed to the cold, I don’t think it’s a major issue. I expect the White Sox to get after it early and often today. Tim Anderson is back atop the lineup followed by Adam Eaton and the latter is 5-11 off of Pivetta in his career with a double and two walks. I like there to be a ton of runs today. Take the over and let’s back in the win column.
Notable Betting Trends
- Boston is 9-1 Straight up in their last 10 games.
- Boston is 8-5 (61.5%) to the over this season.
- Chicago is 5-8 (38.5%) to the under this season.
- The total has gone 4-1 to the over in the five meetings between Chicago and Boston.
Trent’s MLB Betting Record
2021 MLB Season: 7-7 (-2.36 units). A $100 bettor has lost $235.58 this MLB szn.