By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)
It’s the rubber match between the second place Tigers and fourth place White Sox! Chicago currently sits 2 GB the Twins for first place while the Tigers are just 0.5 GB. Nobody loves matinee baseball more than me, so I figured I needed to bang out a preview and of course I’ll have some action on the game. If you follow my picks religiously then you’ll know last week was the worst week I’ve ever had. So I took a couple of days off and went back to the drawing board. We’re still very profitable (+27.209 units) during my tenure here but I need to always be improving my handicapping skills so I’ll be looking at more in depth statistics that are available. S/O to Fangraphs. Hopefully diving deeper into refined statistics gives us more of an edge!
Money Line: CWS -128, DET +118
Run Line: CWS -1.5 (+135), DET +1.5 (-155)
Total: 9.5 (O -105, U -105)
First Pitch: 12:10 CST, Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox were able to capture game number two by a final score 8-4. They jumped out to an early 4-0 lead after the first inning thanks to an Eloy Jimenez three-run YABO and never looked back. It was a solid outing from Gio Gonzalez, going 4.2 IP giving up two earned runs on six hits and one free pass. I’ll take that outing every day of the week from the veteran lefty.
As for today, Rick is rolling with Dylan Cease. Cease is looking to build off an excellent performance on Friday that saw him go 5.0 IP, allowing zero earned and just two hits against the Indians. The thing that we’ve been harping on this whole time is his control issues and that was an issue on Friday as the righty allowed five walks. If he wants to grow into a front end starter, that’s the one thing that needs to be addressed moving forward.
The Tigers will send lefty, Matthew Boyd to the bump for the rubber match. He’s 0-1 on the season with a 9.20 ERA and 13 K’s over 14.2 IP. His most recent outing was when he got shelled against the Pirates, giving up seven earned runs over 4.2 IP. The Buccos notched seven hits and three walks against Boyd. Chicago has very good numbers against the lefty (and most lefties): Abreu is 13-31 with two bombs, Anderson is 10-36 with three doubles, Engel is 4-11, and Jimenez is 3-8 with two homers.
Final Analysis & Prediction
I’m going to lock in the White Sox to get the money line win (-128) in the rubber match on Wednesday for 1.5 units. I’m also playing the over on 9.5 runs for 1.5 units (-106). Chicago’s offense is going to go off. They already have phenomenal numbers against Boyd and the lefty has been getting worse. It’s still early in the season, but his BABIP is .417 compared to .307 in 2019 and his career number of .300. He’s also walking more batters, with a BB/9 of 3.07 compared to 2.43 in 2019. The White Sox offense broke out yesterday after Dallas Keuchel called them out and I don’t think they’re going to lie down after one game. Tim Anderson and Edwin Encarnacion are back and I expect them to score some runs. Chicago makes their living off of lefties, boasting a wOBA of .329.
Now, Dylan Cease isn’t off the hook. The Tigers hit .358 against him in the head to head category. Despite Detroit posting the 6th worst wOBA against righties, they boast a .368 in that category overall over the last seven days. They’re hitting the ball really well at the moment. Look for this one to easily clear the 9.5 total whether the White Sox score 10 runs themselves or these two combine for like 15. Cease has been getting better recently which is why I think the Sox get the dub, but it’s really hard to see Chicago not teeing off on Boyd and running up the scoreboard. Good luck and hopefully we can get back in the win column.
Trent’s Sports Betting Record
Trent’s Lifetime Lynq Sports Record: 163-120-4 (+27.209 units). A $100 bettor is up $2,720.90.
Trent’s 2020 MLB Record: 10-11 (-3.548 units). A $100 bettor is down $354.80 in 2020.
Trent’s 2019 MLB Record: 47-43-3 (+6.846 units). A $100 bettor profited $684.60 in 2019.