By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)
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Money Line: CWS (+134) | NYY (-145)
Run Line: CWS +1.5 (-154) | NYY -1.5 (+138)
Total: 9 (O -112, U -105)
First Pitch: 12:05 CDT | Yankee Stadium | Bronx, NY
Pitching Matchup: Dallas Keuchel (3-1, 4.44 ERA) vs. Jameson Taillon (1-3, 5.73 ERA)
The White Sox will look to avoid the brooms today as they send Dallas Keuchel to the bump. As a Sox fan, this would be pretty demoralizing if we get swept by the Yankees. But it wouldn’t be the end of the world. There’s a lotta ball left this season. Let the Yankee fans have this series and catch us in the ALCS when it matters. Anyways, shoutout to Carlos Rodon for Friday night’s performance – absolutely masterful. He balled out on Friday in a big moment and it’s a shame the offense didn’t show up. On the same token, Gerrit Cole dominated yesterday, going 7.0 innings of shutout baseball. Let’s get right into the pick and analysis for this matinee showdown in the Bronx.
Final Analysis & Best Bet
So, a lot of action is coming in on the Yankees this morning. When I woke up and checked the lines, because that’s always the first thing I do when I roll out of bed, New York was -135 and has since been bet up to -145. Which, I’m not sure why that’s the case considering Jameson Taillon isn’t very good. I have him on my fantasy team and he’s been pretty underwhelming.
I’m going to take the under 9 (-105) for 2 units this afternoon. Even though Taillon isn’t great, he’s a “splits guy” who sees his ERA get down to 3.00 at home (vs. 9.18 away). And his WHIP is 0.86 at home compared to 1.80 on the road. The White Sox sticks have gone missing over the last three games so that’s a trend you like to see when taking an under. On the flip side, Dallas Keuchel needs to bring his best today. There should be a sense of urgency from the Sox dugout and Keuchel will lead the charge. He’s held the Yankees lineup to a slash line of .177/.217/.286 so he has the track record as well.
Additionally, I’m locking in the Sox ML (+134) for 2 units. This is going to be a nice payday if we can get it to hit. But like I said, expect a sense of urgency for Chicago and I think the boys will be fired up to salvage a game here. That’s really the main reason I like them today. All signs point to a low scoring game with the Sox only slashing .225/.290/.521 against Taillon with 11 of their 12 hits coming from Leury Garcia and Billy Hamilton. I’ll say 3-1 in favor of the Southsiders today. They have to have this one. I’m also feeling a Jose Abreu big fly today which would pay a lowly +250. I’m not going to bet that because I usually avoid HR props but it’s an intriguing one that I could see hitting.
Trent’s MLB Betting Record
2021 MLB Season: 21-21 (-4.83 units). A $100 bettor is down $482.60 this MLB szn.