By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)
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Money Line: CWS -105 | NYY -105
Run Line: CWS -1.5 (+150) | NYY +1.5 (-178)
Total: 8 (O -118, U +100)
First Pitch: 6:05 CDT | Yankee Stadium | Bronx, NY
Pitching Matchup: Carlos Rodon (5-1, 1.47 ERA) vs. Jordan Montgomery (2-1, 4.75 ERA)
A lot of folks were saying this may be the matchup we get in the A.L. Championship in October. And at least one of those teams are holding up their end of the bargain. The other team is the Yankees. New York currently resides in third in the East but they’re heating up after a slow start. Let’s dive into tonight’s matchup from the big apple and get a bet locked in!
Chicago White Sox (26-16)
The Sox send lefty Carlos Rodon to the bump tonight and he’s looking to bounce back from his worst outing of the season. He went 5.2 IP and allowed four earned runs on eight hits and three walks. Considering that’s his worst outing of 2021, you can say he’s probably been pretty decent. And he has. He’s dominating teams recently and using three pitches to do so. In previous years ‘Los wasn’t really able to make much of his change up and relied on the fastball and slider. But this season he’s been able to get all three working and he looks like a new man.
The White Sox offense continued their brutalizing of left-handed pitching earlier this week when they beat up on J.A. Happ and the Twins in game one of the series. They put up 16 runs in that game and scored 22 over the three game set in which they won two out of three.
New York Yankees (25-19)
That could be bad news for Aaron Boone and the Yankees as they’ll turn to Jordan Montgomery who’s a lefty. Monty’s coming off of a rough start against the Orioles in which he allowed five earned runs over just 3.0 innings of work. Similar to Rodon, his worst outing of 2021. For those unfamiliar, the lefty relies on five pitches mainly with his changeup leading the way at 25.3%. Other than that, he’ll use a curve (24.7%), sinker (21.6%), cutter (16.1%), and 4-seamer (12.1%). With an arsenal like that, Montgomery is able to get a lot of batters to chase. He ranks in the 83rd percentile in chase rate. That will be a game within the game to pay attention to with the White Sox being very patient at the plate and taking a lot of walks this season.
The Bronx Bombers have lived up to their name in the power department. They rank ninth in homers with 56 and Aaron Judge is leading the way with 12 longballs. Other than that, this offense isn’t very potent. They’re 24th in batting average at .227 and 21st in slugging percentage at .381.
Final Analysis & Best Bet
I’m taking the White Sox money line (-105) for two units tonight. They continue to be the best team in the league against left-handed pitching with a wOBA of .372 (1st) and BABIP (.363). The Yankees in those categories come in at .319 (13th) and 22nd (.275). So there’s a clear advantage to Chicago with the sticks on top of the fact that the Southsiders are sending their best pitcher (this year) to the bump. I just hope the boys don’t get jitters playing in the big apple. Good luck and let’s start the weekend with a winner!
Trent’s MLB Betting Record
2021 MLB Season: 21-20 (-2.83 units). A $100 bettor is down $282.60 this MLB szn.