September 18, 2020

Lynq Sports

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Churchill Downs Opening Day: Late Pick 5

We have a great card to begin the Churchill Downs meet! It’s too bad the Derby is so far off, but instead we have big competitive fields. It’s a bettor’s dream. Here, I analyzed the late pick 5 for Saturday 5/16. This ticket is assuming that they do not get washed off the turf. Rain is a possibility and I will post an updated ticket if the rain causes scratches tomorrow.

My final ticket is: $.50; 5,9/1,5,6,9/1,2,6/11/4,8 ; $24 Total

MSW $79k; CD Race 7

Distance/Surface: 6 Furlongs Dirt

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite:):

  1. Golden Star Lady 8-1
  2. Skinny Dip 6-1
  3. Majestic Blend 12-1
  4. April in Paris 20-1
  5. **Say Moi 5-2
  6. Tormenta 12-1
  7. Mystic Miss 20-1
  8. Saintsation 15-1
  9. Rocks That I Got 15-1
  10. Offering 8-1
  11. Beradette the Jet 5-1
  12. Stonewood 6-1
  13. Initial Thoughts: The late pick 5 starts out with a very completive maiden special weight. Say Moi is your tepid 5-2 favorite after getting second in his debut. The Velazquez/Mott combo will mean this horse will take big money before all is said and done. This is a fun race with a range of horses coming from many different racetracks.

Horses I like:

  • Rocks That I Got: You are telling me that I can get this American Pharoah filly at 15-1?! Sign me up. Her dam is impressive too producing 9 winners from 9 starters including a stakes winner. Trainer Jeremiah O’Dwyer hits at 15% with first time starters and 20% for debut MSW’s. Love this horse at a very fair price.
  • Say Moi: As much as I wanted to go against this favorite, she looks very strong. First, I love the Velazquez/Mott combo. He also had a very strong debut race where he finished second by 3 ¾ lengths. He should be fitter here and should get a perfect stalking trip. 2 horses from Say Moi’s MSW have already come back to win with another horse returning to get 2nd. This is your deserving favorite.

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • Stonewood: I don’t like how the horse faded in her first start. She was 10-1 in her debut and is now a shorter price in what looks to be a much stronger field. She’s off a 3 month layoff and may need the race.
  • Golden Star Lady: Until further notice I am staying away from Wesley Ward horses. Especially his 3 year olds not named Four Wheel Drive. Gafflalione rides which means I think the horse will get overbet. She’s 0-4 to start her career and just don’t see her getting it done today.

Top Pick:

Rocks that I Got is my top pick. She is beautifully bred and is at a great price. If Say Moi doesn’t get it done, I think this is your best chance at the upset.

ALW $81k; CD Race 8

Distance/Surface: 8 Furlongs Turf

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite:):

  1. Bama Breeze 10-1
  2. Hellorhighwater 8-1
  3. Mind the Gap 12-1
  4. Tankerville 6-1
  5. Danny California 8-1
  6. Labeq 6-1
  7. **Limnery 4-1
  8. El Ahijado 50-1
  9. Motagally 6-1
  10. Sea of Hope 10-1
  11. Uncapped 8-1
  12. Clear for Action 12-1

Initial Thoughts: What a great competitive race! Another one that includes a ton of shippers. Similar to the prior race, I think we have another vulnerable favorite here. Great betting race.

Horses I like:

  • Bama Breeze: Other than the long layoff, there is no reason this horse should be 10-1. He debuted at Churchill downs last September at 9 furlongs winning by 1 ¼ lengths. That’s damn impressive for a 2 year old. Now in his 3 year old debut, he cuts back in distance and adds Leparoux to the mount. His workouts have been strong and there is no reason to think he’s not ready to fire.
  • Danny California: This horse has improved since turning 5. He has good tactical sped and should have no problem stalking the leaders in this spot. He’s back at a mile which seems to be his preferred distance. Rosario is back on to ride which I think is a great sign. He hasn’t ridden the horse since they were winning races at saratoga in summer of 2019. He’s familiar with the horse and sees that Danny California is improving with age. Trainer Orlando Noda is hitting at 23% so far in 2020.
  • Labeq: It’s hard to leave a Maker claim off the ticket. How does he do it?! I’m sure its nothing nefarious… Regardless Labeq is well placed off the claim and has every chance to win this one.
  • Mortagally: I’m not going to let Chad Brown beat me with this colt. He clearly needed a race last out and has been freshened since then. Brown places horses to win so I expect a great effort here. Castellano to ride another great sign. Look at the horses this guy lost too: Vekoma, Tacitus, and War Giant… Very solid horses. Going from dirt to turf is slightly concerning, but Brown might be the best turf trainer in the world.

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • Limnery: This is just a bad favorite plain and simple. Could he win? Of course. But this colt hasn’t won a race in over a year. That was when he broke his maiden by ½ a length at Fair grounds last February. Since then he’s been consistently average with a lot of 2nds and 3rds. At some point, you have to acknowledge there are just some horses  that don’t like to win. This is one of them. This will be a great horse to key in 2nd, but I’m trying to beat on top.
  • Tankerville: This is an odd placement by Bill Mott. This horse has never raced over a fast track and is shipped from oversees to debut as a 4 year old at Churchill downs. This horse might go off as your favorite, but I’m going to let him beat me. The travel, the layoff, and the surface change (assuming no rain) is enough for me to play against.
  • Hellorhighwater: I respect any horse that can break their maiden at Kentucky downs. But this horse clearly likes the longer distances and I think a mile is just a bit short for him. Look to bet back when he stretches out.

I’m going with my boy Bama Breeze. At 10-1 there is a ton of value here. 9 furlongs is such a tough debut distance for young horses. Not only did this guy handle it, he thrived! He’s back on the same course as his maiden win with Leparoux on board. George Arnold claims the horse and wins 14% of his turf starts.

Claimer $50k; CD Race 9

Distance/Surface: 6 Furlongs Dirt

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite:):

  1. Patrol 8-1
  2. Adhhar 6-1
  3. News Flash 10-1
  4. Yamano Maker 6-1
  5. Royal Commission 12-1
  6. Sacred Oath 12-1
  7. Going With Style 50-1
  8. Hersh 10-1
  9. Box of Chocolates
  10. Saratogian 12-1
  11. Smile Bryan 6-1
  12. **Admire 5-1

Initial Thoughts: This is a tough race, because you have a lot of horses that are dropping in class with others that are staying successful at this level. I usually lean towards the horses that have been successful at the level. I always get nervous backing big class droppers.

Horses I like:

  • Patrol: Throw out his last race as he clearly hated the turf. Now he is back on the dirt for the 3rd start of his career. He broke his maiden on debut by 1 ½ lengths at Aqueduct in mid-February. He was a $350k purchase last year and I think it is way too early to give up on this colt. Placed well at a good price.
  • Adhhar: Claimed by Amos 2 races back out of a $50MCL. From there Amos moves Adhhar up in class to a 8.5 f OC $80K. There he ran a very respectable 4th at 20-1 odds! Notice too that he only lost by 2 ½ lengths. Now Amos brings him back to his preferred distance.
  • Sacred Oath: It sucks that you can’t throw out Diodoro claims. He is just so “talented” at “improving” horses immediately after a claim. This horse fits well class wise and nearly beat a similar group of horses last at at Oaklawn. Do not be surprised if this one jumps up and steals the race.

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • Admire: Another bad favorite here. He hasn’t won a race since November of 2018 for god’s sake! Is Dale Romans going to turn this horse around in the middle of his 4 year old season?! I’m certainly not betting my money on that.
  • Smile Bryan: I think he will improve in his 4 year old season, but I think he will need the race. Look to bet next time out.
  • Yamano Maker: I hate betting huge class drops off a long layoff. He’s lost by double digit lengths in 4 out of his last 5 races. He’ll take some money but not any of mine.

Top Pick:

Adhhar is my top pick. This is a good placement by Amos and I like the improvement I’ve seen from the horse since the claim and as he has matured.

MSW 79$k; CD Race 9

Distance/Surface: 7 Furlongs Dirt

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite:):

  1. Mo City 9-2
  2. Portrait 4-1
  3. Blood Curdling 20-1
  4. Joysome 8-1
  5. **Miss T Too 4-1
  6. Long Point Beach
  7. Sconsin 12-1
  8. Four Graces 9-2
  9. French Rose 30-1
  10. Myeerah 30-1
  11. Aurelia Garland 8-1
  12. Gone Glimmering 10-1

Initial Thoughts: This is yet another wide open race! This will be really tough to narrow this sequence down, but at some point you have to take a stand. I’m taking my stand right here with a risky but realistic single… and it’s not the favorite.

Horses I like:

  • Aurelia Garland: You might think I’m crazy, but I’m going to single the 11. First off, notice that Jose Ortiz jumps on board a maiden winner that hasn’t run in over a year. More than that this horse was previously trained by Wesley Ward and now moves to the Brisset barn. Lets look at that maiden win a little closer too. She beat a field of only of 5 by 5 lengths. Despite the small field it was a strong race. 2 horses have been multiple time winners coming out of the race including Sweet Melania who won a Grade 2 race at Keenland and placed 3rd in the Breeder’s cup Juvenile Turf. This is another talented filly out of constitution where there is little reason to believe that she cannot improve off that maiden win. I like her workout pattern too. She fired a bullet 4f work on May 4th followed by a slower work on May 10th. That tells me that they needed nothing more from this filly. She is ready to fire. I doubt we get the 8-1 price on her, but hey one can hope.

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • Mo City: I don’t trust this guy’s speed figures coming out of Tampa. His 1 race outside of Tampa was atrocious. This is his 3rd jockey in 4 starts. Ill let him beat me.
  • Miss T Too: I’m not going to lie, this horse makes me nervous. He’s fired several big bullet works since his maiden win and you get the great Velazquez/Mott combo. He did get an easy lead in his last start though, and I’m betting he will not like the pressure he is going to get here. I have to try and beat.
  • Four Graces: It’s hard to tell if his Maiden win was a fluke or if his last race where he finished 9 lengths back was the fluke. Ian Wilkes is only a 13% shipper with a negative $.054 ROI. I’ll also try and beat.

Top Pick: Single Aurelia Garland

ALW 80$k; CD Race 11

Distance/Surface: 5.5 Furlongs Turf

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite:):

  1. Bayerly Seen 10-1
  2. Reagan’s Edge 30-1
  3. Call on Mischief 8-1
  4. Karak 4-1
  5. Illchester Cheetah 12-1
  6. Ununderstandable 10-1
  7. Owners Suite 50-1
  8. Fashionable Lady 10-1
  9. Bredenbury 4-1
  10. **Fly So Pretty 7-2
  11. Chili Petin 5-1
  12. Monedas de Oro 50-1
  13. Initial Thoughts: We close the pick 5 with yet another full field with plenty of contenders. This is an allowance for filly 3 year olds.Since we singled the last race, I am going to try to spread to finish out the sequence.

Horses I like:

  • Karak: People might write off this horse since he won his last race at turf paradise on the synthetic. But let me tell you, any time you win by over 8 lengths in a 3 year old debut, I’m going to take notice. This horse has talent too. He broke his maiden on debut going 5f at Belmont! Then Ward sent him to Ascot for their prestigious meet. Wesley Ward only sends his top talent to that meet.  After his win last out, he posted a bullet 4f workout followed by a slow 5f work. That tells me, Ward didn’t need to see any more from this guy. He’s ready to fire!
  • Fashionable Lady: I love Decloration of War horses on the turf. This horse hasn’t raced in over a year, but in that race he was able to win closing from 5th at 32-1 odds! That win was on this very track. Just for grins, the 3rd place horse in that race was none other than Fly So Pretty. She lost to Fashionable Lady by over 2 lengths that day. I’m getting 3 times the price on a horse that already beat her and should improve in her 3 year old debut.

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • Fly So Pretty: I’m not sure why he’s the favorite here. He hasn’t raced in over a year, gets a tough post position, and doesn’t have the highest speed figures in this field. I also don’t like the Gafflione rode this horse 2 back and then jumped off. He’s just to this horses outside on Chili Petin.
  • Chili Petin: I just don’t think she is as good as the other Wesley Ward horse. She also has a much tougher post position.
  • Brdenbury: I don’t understand why she is 4-1. Since coming to the states, she has yet to win a race. I also think this distance is too short for her.

Top Pick:

Karak is my top pick! He should be your favorite in this race and he very well might be your favorite at post time.