By Hector Duran
Moneyline: CIN -114; CHC -106
Spread: CIN -1.5 (+160); CHC +1.5 (-180)
Total: 7.5; Over (-120); Under (EVEN)
First Pitch: 7:05pm CST, Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
The Reds come into tonight taking 2 out of 3 from the lowly Pirates and this has been such a disappointing season for a Reds team that had high hopes. They are 5 back in the loss column so they really cannot afford anymore losses at this point. Tonight, they will send the right hander Tyler Mahle out to the mound where he has a 1-1 record with a 3.90 ERA. In his last 2 starts Mahle has looked like he has put it together. One bat to keep an eye on in this series is Cub killer Eugenio Suarez. Over his last 7 games, Suarez has put together a nice slashline of .364/.400/1.136 and that includes a 3 homer, 5 RBI game he had on Saturday. This guy always seems to kill Cubs pitching and even though he is only 1-10 against Mills in his career, that lone hit came via the longball.
The Cubs were able to get a huge start from Kyle Hendricks who has been money at home. Tonight they will look to carry it over and pass the ball to Alec Mills who is 3-3 with a 5.50 ERA. Mills’ last start came against the Tigers where he went 7 strong innings and gave up 7 hits, 3 runs, 1 walk to go along with 7 strikeouts. His previous start before that though was at Cincinnati where he got into some trouble going 3 innings and giving up 4 runs. Javy Baez is coming off a 3-4 game yesterday with some great at bats so it would be awesome for the team to have him build off yesterday’s game. Jason Heyward has been feeling sick and has been out of the lineup but I would expect him to not be in there again today with him being 2-16 against Mahle.
Analysis and Best Bet
With both starters coming off decent starts, I am going to take the under at 7.5 runs. The wind will be howling in from the lake which means there will be few, if any, long balls hit tonight. The Reds are averaging only 4 runs in their last 3 games while the Cubs also have been scuffling on offense as of late. In terms of a winner, I think this one can go either way but I do like the under here at even money.