By: Trent Pruitt
The Cavaliers boarded the plane with smiles last night as they picked up the W in Washington. I feel obligated to tell you all that I was on them +6 courtesy of the NBA model we’ve developed at Lynq Sports. Cleveland takes the quick flight down to Southbeach where they’ll take on one of the better home teams in the league. The Heat are 22-3 at home and looking to get back in the win column after dropping one on the road Thursday to the Hawks.
Spread: MIA -13.5
Money Line: MIA -1200, CLE +700
Over/Under: 220.5 (-110)
Tip: 8:00 ET, AmericanAirlines Arena, Miami, FL
I’m going to be honest, there haven’t been very many bright spots for the Cavaliers this season. They’re just 15-40 and currently reside in last in the Eastern Conference. Additionally, they’ve gone 3-7 over their last 10 games but have picked up consecutive wins against the Hawks and Wizards. As for statistical rankings, they are 25th in points per game (106), 21st in FG% (45.5%), and 29th in turnovers (15.7/game). If you’re looking for further evidence that they aren’t very good, Cleveland is dead last in blocked shots (3.3/game) and apparently the Cavs don’t really like grabbing rebounds as they’re 20th in that category (44.5/game). They did make that trade with the Pistons to bring in double-double machine, Andre Drummond though and he is averaging 15.0 ppg and 13.7 boards through his first three games.
The Heat had a successful All-Star break as they came home with some hardware! Bam Adebayo won the skills competition while Derrick Jones Jr. won a controversial slam dunk contest. Miami is sitting in a good spot right now, 4th in the East with a record of 35-20. They’re just .5 games up on the Sixers and I hope it stays just like that- that would be an electric playoff series! The Heat are led by Jimmy Buckets who is averaging 20.6 ppg to go along with 6.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists. Since coming over from Memphis, Jae Crowder has slotted in nicely, averaging 17.0 ppg and 6.5 boards over four games. As a team, Miami is 13th in points per game, averaging 112 while shooting 8th best from the field (46.7%).
Analysis & Best Bet
If I’m telling the truth, I don’t absolutely love this pick tonight. But… the NBA model says that it’s our 2nd most confident play tonight so I will roll with it. Give me the Heat -13.5. When I was doing my research this morning I expected to see this line down around 10 or 11 but I guess I could see this game getting out of control if things fall into place as they should. Let’s start with the Heat coming off a loss, they’re 14-5 ATS after a loss which is top 5 in the Association. Additionally, Miami is 17-7-1 ATS at home and 21-14-1 ATS as favorites. As for the Cavs, they’re 4-5 ATS on back-to-backs, 7-7 ATS after a win, and 14-12 ATS away. So this isn’t necessarily a fade of Cleveland but more of a confidence play on the Heat to get the job done. Like I said, I don’t love it at this high of a line, but #InTheSystemWeTrust. Happy #WinnersOnlySaturday and make sure to tune into Brunch, Bets, & the Boys around 1P CST to find out what our most confident NBA play is! Let’s stay hot.
Trent’s Record on NBA Picks in ‘19-’20
11-5 (+5.13 units). A $100 bettor is up $513 on the season.