What a thrilling end to the ballgame last night! A costly error by Cleveland allowed the winning run to cross home plate for the White Sox. Now, we are in line for what should be a spectacular pitching performance this evening. Shane Bieber gets the ball for Cleveland, and Lucas Giolito will oppose him for the White Sox.
Money Line: CLE +100 | CWS -110
Run Line: CLE +1.5 (-215) | CWS -1.5 (+185)
Total: 7 (O +104, U -124)
First Pitch: 7:10 CDT | Guaranteed Rate Field | Chicago, IL
Jack’s Analysis & Best Bet
So far this season, Bieber has been, well by his standard, not quite as sharp as we expected. He currently reps a 3.65 ERA, which is sure to dwindle as the season progresses on. The strikeouts have certainly been pouring in for the right-hander this season though. In 12.1 innings pitched this season, Bieber has accounted for 24 punch-outs. The walks have also been a tick higher this season opposed to last season. It is pretty unrealistic to think Bieber will put up the same, if not better numbers this season than he did in 2020. That being said, we should still expect to see Bieber have an ERA somewhere in the upper two or low three range at the end of the season, with a WHIP a touch over 1.00. Against the White Sox last season, Bieber pitched 11 innings and allowed just three runs in that span. White Sox hitters are a career batting average of .237 against Bieber.
Lucas Giolito has shown signs of greatness this season, but he seems to struggle when it reaches the third time through the batting order. Giolito has failed to work past the sixth inning this season, with most of the damage from the opposition coming from the third inning on. A large reason for Giolito’s inability to work past the sixth inning is his high pitch count. He has 18 strikeouts this season, but he also usually hits the 90 pitch plateau in the sixth inning. Tony La Russa has to be pleased if he can get five solid innings from his ace, but I am sure Lucas would like to pitch deeper into ball games. A la Lance Lynn. Anyway, the numbers have been decent for Giolito this season. The right-hander was rocked around for four runs in his first outing against the Angels, but he was able to limit the damage to two runs against Seattle the next time out. Giolito faced Cleveland three times last season. He pitched 19 innings, while limiting the Indians to just four runs in that span. Cleveland has a team batting average of .169 against Giolito in his career.
I took the under last week in my collab with Mr. Pruitt, which was a bit of sweat thanks to the White Sox fire power at the dish. I am going to take a chance here with the team total runs instead of the total runs for the game. Last season, Giolito had a 1.89 ERA against Cleveland. The Cleveland offense is not exactly “over powering”, as they are 20th in batting average and 2nd in baseball in runners left in scoring position per game this season. Expect the Indians to be held to 2-3 runs tonight. I will take the U3.5 runs (-120) for Cleveland as my best bet.
-Jack O’Keefe (@jpokeefe1s)
Jack’s 2021 MLB picks: (4-4)
Trent’s Analysis & Best Bet
We picked up a 1.5 unit win last night thanks to the aforementioned error leading to a White Sox victory. Cashing on the Sox money line (-124) moves us closer to even money and we’re now 6-6 on the young MLB season. Like Jack was saying, we’re in for a doozy of a pitching matchup tonight. This is what it’s all about. Biebs won the AL Cy Young last season while Lucas Giolito finished 7th. It really doesn’t get much better than this.
Even though these teams have only played a combined 21 games, you know these guys are going to be extra locked in tonight as it’s two of the best pitchers in the game squaring off. And I feel like they know they each need to go at least 6+ IP with the bullpens getting significant work yesterday. But I’m locking in the under on .5 Indians runs (+115) in the first three innings for a unit. Like Jack mentioned, Lucas Giolito has been masterful the first time through the lineup. He didn’t allow a run the first time through the order against the Halos in the opener and although he gave up three against Seattle in the third, that was all on the defense. I like the plus money payout here, especially against an Indians’ team that isn’t very good at the dish. And Giolito has great numbers against the Tribe with them slashing .169/.234/.417 off of him.
Let’s cash a ticket tonight and if you guys are at the game, hit me up and let’s grab an ice cold beer!
-Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)
Trent’s MLB Betting Record
2021 MLB Season: 6-6 (-2.01 units). A $100 bettor has lost $200.58 this MLB szn.