May 12, 2021

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Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox: Preview, Analysis & Best Bet – 4/15/2021

By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)

First and foremost, a huge shoutout goes out to Carlos Rodon and the defense behind him! Carlos Rodon threw the 20th no-hitter in White Sox history last night. It was a phenomenal performance and thanks to really solid defense on the back end, the boys helped guide him to this amazing feat! 

I’ll once again be in attendance today at the G-Spot for a matinee matchup as our beloved White Sox look to take three out of four against the Tribe. Let’s get into each team and I’ll lock in our best bet as we continue to inch towards even money on the young season. Should be another fun pitching matchup, this time between Aaron Civale and Lance Lynn. 

Money Line: CLE +139 | CWS -150

Run Line: CLE +1.5 (-150) | CWS -1.5 (+130)

Total: 8 (O -105, U -115)

First Pitch: 1:10 CDT | Guaranteed Rate Field | Chicago, IL

Cleveland Indians (6-5)

Terry Francona will turn to Aaron Civale to try and salvage a game and escape the series at 2-2. Civale is righty who’s 2-0 to start the season. He’s thrown 14.2 innings over the two starts and racked up 12 K’s along the way. He’s posted an ERA of 2.45 to go along with a 0.55 WHIP. And I feel like it’s worth mentioning that both starts came against the Tigers. The righty out of East Windsor, Connecticut has a six pitch arsenal and out of the 181 pitches he’s thrown in the 2021 campaign, here’s the breakdown: 4-seamer at 28.7%, cutter at 25.4%, curveball at 16%, changeup at 12.7%, slider at 11%, and sinker at 6.1%. I’ve always thought he was a pretty solid starter and he continues to get better as the years go by. I’m not sure what’s in the water in Cleveland, but they know how to develop arms. 

Unfortunately, they don’t really know how to develop the sticks. This was my biggest worry for the Tribe heading into the season. As we enter the third week of the season, Cleveland ranks 29th in team batting average (.195) and 25th in runs. Their success offensively has come via the longball, where they rank 9th in homeruns at 15. Franmil Reyes and Jose Ramirez are the only guys you have to really be cautious of. Other than those two, you’ll see guys like Eddie Rosario or Jordan Luplow occasionally find success, but I don’t think they’re constant threats. 

Chicago White Sox (6-6)

MASS = GAS baby! Lance Lynn will make his third start of the season this afternoon. This one comes after a CGSO against the Royals in the home opener last Thursday. He went 9.0 IP, allowing zero runs on five hits and he fanned 11. He’s 1-0 on the season with a 0.00 ERA over 13.2 IP with a WHIP of 0.95. When you go up to the plate against the burly righty, you’re going to get a fastball. But the question becomes: What type of heater is coming? 97.6% of his pitches are fastballs with the 4-seamer being his go-to (46.7%) and he’ll mix in a cutter (25.7%) and sinker (25.2%).

The sticks came to life last night and gave Carlos Rodon plenty of run support. 8-0 was the final with six of those runs coming in the first inning. The legend of Yermin Mercedes continues to grow as the season chugs along. Mercedes hit a moonshot 3-run homer in the first and the team went for seven hits in the first forcing a very early exit from Zach Plesac. 

Final Analysis & Best Bet

I’m taking the White Sox on the money line (-150) for 1.5 units this afternoon. I believe we’re in for another Lance Lynn masterpiece today against one of the worst hitting baseball clubs in the league. I mean, the guy hasn’t allowed an earned run all season and he has a nice track record against Chief Wahoo’s Indians. The current roster is only 5-39 against Lynn with two extra base hits. Additionally, the White Sox bats seem to be trending upward and they’ll get an additional boost with Tim Anderson returning to the lineup today. I think we’re in for a low scoring affair with Chicago coming out on top. I’ll say 5-0 as the Sox move closer to 1st place in the Central and we look to move into profitability with our wagers. 

Trent’s MLB Betting Record

2021 MLB Season: 7-6 (-0.86 units). A $100 bettor has lost $85.58 this MLB szn.

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