By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)
We’re heading to England for the only EPL action today between Crystal Palace and Burnley F.C. Our soccer team continues to crush it since the restart and we’re looking to cash another ticket this afternoon!
Money Line: CP +122, BUR +280, DRAW +205
Spread: CP Pk, -.5 (-118)
Total: 2 (O +100, U -120)
Kickoff: 3:00 ET, Selhurst Park Stadium, London, UK
The Palace is 4-0-1 over their last five matches and had their four-match win streak get broken when they were dusted by Liverpool 4-0 on Wednesday. They currently sit in a tie for 10th place with Burnley (42 points) but a win can drive them all the way to a tie for 7th with Tottenham (45 points). The middle of the table is very tight as teams enter the home stretch of their schedules.
Through 31 matches, Crystal Palace possesses the second worst offense in terms of both scoring and shots with 28 & 218, respectively. Jordan Ayew leads what little offensive output Crystal Palace has with nine goals and is followed up by Wilfried Zaha, James McArthur, and Patrick van Aanholt who all have three tallies each. On the backend, it’ll likely be Vicente Guaita between the pipes. The Spanish born goalkeeper has conceded just 28 goals per 28 starts and has recorded 10 clean sheets on the year. With this lousy offense and respectable defence and goalkeeping, it’s no wonder why the goal total is just 2 (O +100, U -120).
Courtesy of a Jay Rodriguez 73’ minute goal, The Clarets got the 1-0 win over Watford at home on Thursday afternoon. As I mentioned above, Burnley is tied for 10th and with a win, they’ll move into a tie for 7th as well. They have a little bit more of an offensive output with 35 goals scored on the season which is good enough for the 12th ranked offense in terms of goals. Most of the offense flows through Chris Wood, who has 11 goals on the year. Jay Rodriguez and Ashley Barnes are tied for second on Burnley with six goals each. Nick Pope does the goalkeeping for Burnley and he has conceded 45 goals on the season, made 94 saves, and has amassed 12 clean sheets.
Final Analysis & Best Bet
Neither of these offenses are very powerful so in my opinion, both the goal line and the total are right where they should be. With Crystal Palace the home side, I would make Roy Hodgson’s squad the slight favorite at -.25 as well. Burnley is just 4-4-7 on the road so Crystal Palace definitely has the advantage here. They’ll also be without Ashley Barnes who has a hernia. I will be rolling with their lowly offense and strong defense to secure the W at pk, -.5 (-118) for one unit! It’s clear that CP is in much better form as a team plus they have the upper hand at home in this one. I like that we are at pk, -.5 as we still have the tie in our back pocket in case things don’t go the way we expect. Finally, the Clarets have failed to score in their previous two away games and I don’t see them getting on the board against Vicente Guaita & Co. on Monday afternoon.
This pick is endorsed by the system that I’ve been testing over the last 12 days and has gone 18-15-3 and picked up +1.186 units or +$118.60 for the $100 bettor.
Trent’s Record on Soccer Bets
4-1 (+2.718 units). A $100 bettor is up $271.80 in 2020.
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