By: Trent Pruitt
The NBA is finally back after a thrilling and eventful All-Star weekend in the Windy City! I’ve identified a couple of trends that will help us start our weekend profitable, so let’s break down this cross-conference matchup between the Mavs and the Magic.
Spread: DAL -4.5
Money Line: DAL -177, ORL +157
Over/Under: 219.5 (-110)
Tip: 6 ET, Amway Center, Orlando, FL
The Mavericks have a healthy Luka Doncic as they enter the homestretch of the season. Mark Cuban’s squad currently resides in a tie for the 6th spot of the Western Conference, nine games off of the pace of the Lake Show and two games behind the Rockets for the 5th seed. Overall on the season, Dallas has been excellent offensively, scoring the Association’s 3rd most points per game (116), shooting 5th best from downtown (37.1%), and turning the ball over just 11.9 times per game (1st in NBA). They’re led by the foreign duo of Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. Luka is averaging 28.9 ppg, 9.5 rebounds, and 8.7 assists while the big man is putting up 18.4 ppg and 9.1 rebounds.
Whatever the Magic have been doing over the last month, they need to do less of it. They’re just 4-10 since January 16th and they’re in jeopardy of losing their coveted 8th seed in the Eastern Conference. They score just 104 ppg (29th), and shoot only 43.4% (28th). Either they love to play in low scoring games or they just aren’t good at shooting the ball… who knows, maybe it’s both. With the way they shoot, I was surprised to see this over/under be so high, I’m leaning under. Anyways, the Magic feature seven different players that average double-digits each night and that includes the man who was robbed of a slam dunk contest win, Aaron Gordon. Gordon is averaging 14.2 ppg to go along with 7.3 rebounds, and 3.1 assists.
Analysis & Best Bet
This one is pretty clear to me. Despite the Magic being on a two-game win streak (Hawks, Pistons), they still don’t have the competitive edge to hang with Dallas. I will be rolling with the Dallas Mavericks -4.5 for a unit bet tonight! Dallas is 17-6-2 ATS on the road and 21-18-2 as favorites, meaning they take care of business when they should. As for the Magic, they’re the opposite. They’re just 10-17-1 ATS at home and Vegas overestimates them as underdogs considering they’ve gone just 10-18-2 as dogs. I’ll leave you with this- the Mavericks are an all-around better team and to be getting them at only -4.5, I think it’s a steal. When I was checking the games this morning I figured this would be up around 6.5 or 7. As always, don’t go betting your daughter’s college tuition on just one game… Or do, I’m pretty confident in this one!
Trent’s Record on NBA Picks in ‘19-’20
10-5 (+4.22 units). A $100 bettor is up $422 on the season.
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