By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)
Money Line: DET +139 | CWS -151
Run Line: DET +1.5 (-146) | CWS -1.5 (+126)
Total: 8.5 (O +100, U -120)
First Pitch: 7:10 CDT | Guaranteed Rate Field | Chicago, IL
Pitching Matchup: Spencer Turnbull (4-2, 2.93 ERA) vs. Dallas Keuchel (4-1, 4.53 ERA)
The Southsiders picked up the win in the series opener over the Tigers thanks to four solo homers and another dominant outing from Lance Lynn. They’ve now won 12 out of their last 13 games against Detroit at the G-Spot and will be looking to tack onto that streak tonight as Tony La Russa sends Dallas Keuchel to the bump. A.J. Hinch will counter with Spencer Turnbull who has been putting together a resurgent campaign. Let’s dive into this A.L. Central contest and get a bet locked in!
Detroit Tigers (23-33)
The righty, Spencer Turnbull heads to the bump tonight for the visiting Tigers. He’s won three straight decisions including a no-hitter against the Mariners on 5/18.The hurler out of Demopolis, AL threw 35.0 innings in May and posted a 2.83 ERA over six starts. He’s fared moderately well against the White Sox in his career. Against the current lineup, Turnbull’s held Chicago to a .224/.333/.285 slash line and gave up only three extra-base-hits over 35 at-bats. The righty goes with his 94 mph 4-seamer at a 36.4% rate, a slider 24.6% of the time and mixes in a sinker (21.7%), curve (7.5%), changeup (7.5%), and occasional cutter (2.2%). A lot of us may think of Spencer from the 2019 season where he went 3-17 with a 4.61 ERA, but he’s been developing into a solid starter and shouldn’t be taken too lightly.
As for the Tigers offense, they aren’t great. Detroit’s 27th in the MLB in batting average (.226), OBP (.297), and runs (205). They’re 29th in slugging percentage at .362 and the great Miguel Cabrera is only batting .188 on the season with four homeruns. Jeimer Candelario has been the most dangerous Tiger hitter this season with a .278/.351/.400 slash line with a team leading seven longballs.
Chicago White Sox (34-22)
It’ll be the lefty sinkerballer in Dallas Keuchel getting the nod tonight. He’s also won three straight decisions for Chicago but hasn’t been dominant. Keuchel’s latest outing only lasted 5.0 innings and 87 pitches in which he allowed four earned runs. In his defense, it was a seven inning game so Tony went to the pen with a lead to hold down the game so that’s not necessarily on Dallas. Something that’s worrisome about the southpaw is that his xERA is only in the 6th percentile at 6.08 in 2021. For anyone unaware, that’s expected ERA so that statisticians would say Dallas has been “lucky” to post a 4-1 record with a 4.53 ERA. And that checks out considering he’s received a ton of run support in his starts to inflate his record.
Final Analysis & Best Bet
I am going to take the Tigers on the run line (+1.5, -146) for two units tonight. The pitching matchup actually favors Detroit tonight with the current form and overall success (or lack thereof) that these two hurlers have had. The current Tigers have slashed .385/.443/.745 against the lefty for Chicago with four homers over 77 AB’s. Keuchel just hasn’t had it recently and even though Detroit’s offense stinks, this would be an opportunity for them to break out for a few runs. And a few is probably all they’ll need as Turnbull’s really turned a corner and is coming into his own under Hinch’s reign as manager.
Trent’s MLB Betting Record
2021 MLB Season: 28-27-1 (5.27 units). A $100 bettor is down $482.16 this MLB szn.