By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)
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Money Line: DET +210 | CWS -233
Run Line: DET +1.5 (+110) | CWS -1.5 (-118)
Total: 8 (O -109, U -105)
First Pitch: 1:10 CDT | Guaranteed Rate Field | Chicago, IL
Pitching Matchup: Tarik Skubal (2-7, 4.59 ERA) vs. Lucas Giolito (5-4, 3.73 ERA)
The White Sox enter this one as massive favorites (-233) according to the oddsmakers and that’s probably a pretty fair line. Seeing Chicago’s success at home against the Tigers (13-1 over their last 14) and with the pitching matchup, that 100% makes sense. Let’s get into it and lock in a few bets!
Detroit Tigers (23-34)
It’s Tarik Skubal going for Motown this afternoon and he’s 2-7 on the season with a 4.59 WHIP and 1.45 WHIP. If you’re an optimist then you’ll point out that both of those wins have come over his last three starts with his best outing of the year being his last. He shut down the Yankees over 6.0 innings, holding them to just zero runs on three hits. Skubal’s road splits are not favorable as he sees his ERA rise to 7.31 away from Comerica compared to 3.27. And I had to do a double take when I looked at his head-to-head stats against the White Sox. Sox hitters bat a perfect 1.000 (6-6) against him with a double and homer. Both of those extra base hits are from Tim Anderson while Jose Abreu is 2-2 with a pair of knocks and the others come from Danny Mendick and Yoan Moncada.
The Tigers were able to break out for a few runs yesterday but they’ll be in for a tough challenge today against Lucas Giolito. They’re still 27th in team batting average (.226) and runs per game (3.74) while ranking 25th in hits per game (7.40) and home runs per game (0.98).
Chicago White Sox (35-22)
It’s Lucas Giolito toeing the rubber for this matinee thriller. He’s fresh off getting ejected on Thursday night for challenging the umpire from the dugout. Lucas is 5-4 on the season with a 3.73 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. His latest outing was a good one where he limited the Orioles to one run over 7.0 innings pitched on just three hits. The righty out of Santa Monica has won three straight decisions (over three straight games) and posted a 2.41 ERA over six starts in May. So it’s safe to say he’s starting to get in his groove again.
The Sox bats continued to shine last night as they posted nine runs. A majority of those runs came from poor defense and taking advantage of walks, but hey, good teams do that. Heading into today, the Southsiders own the fourth best team batting average at .254 and are scoring 5.00 runs per game (3rd). Chicago has a .341 OBP which ranked first in the league as well as a league-leading BABIP at .315.
Final Analysis & Best Bet
Well, last night was a rollercoaster of a game if you were holding a Tigers +1.5 (-146) ticket like we were. Spencer Turnbull looked phenomenal through four innings, limiting the White Sox to a single run. That was before he exited with right arm soreness and then our bet went to shambles with Kyle Funkhouser, an Oak Forest native, opening the door for a five run 5th inning. It was looking like our ticket was heading straight to the trash. But nevertheless, the White Sox bullpen imploded and the Tigers worked their way back in front from a five run deficit. Ultimately the White Sox walked it off and won 9-8 so my fandom was pleased but more importantly, we cashed our bet. We’re now 6-1 over our last seven on the diamond and it’s #WinnersOnlySaturday… so our bookie is sitting here like:
As for this afternoon’s contest, we’ll be fading the lefty as per usual. It’s basically the greatest trend in all of sports. And while no one’s certain what the Sox record is against left-handed starters since the start of 2020, we know it’s really good. I think it has to be like 28-2 at this point. This is why I need an intern.
But I’ll be playing the White Sox ML (-233) for three units as well as the run line (-1.5, -118) for two units. Give me the over 4.5 runs for the Southsiders at -125 for two units also. This is a heavy order and some would say borderline ludacris laying seven units on one ball game. But the statistics are there to back this one. Giolito is trending upwards and while Skubal turned in a nice outing last time, his road splits are worrisome and he’s going up against the best hitting team in the league against lefties. Happy #WinnersOnlySaturday, let’s break out the sticks today and lock in some profits on the baseball field.
Trent’s MLB Betting Record
2021 MLB Season: 29-27-1 (3.45 units). A $100 bettor is down $345.17 this MLB szn.