By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)
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Money Line: DET +213 | CWS -232
Run Line: DET +1.5 (+106) | CWS -1.5 (-124)
Total: 8 (O -112, U -105)
First Pitch: 7:10 CDT | Guaranteed Rate Field | Chicago, IL
Pitching Matchup: Jose Urena (0-3, 4.57 ERA) vs. Lucas Giolito (1-1, 5.79 ERA)
Two teams trending in opposite directions get together tonight at the G-Spot in Chicago to kick off a 3-game set in the American League Central! The White Sox have won four straight and are coming off of a sweep of the Rangers while the Tigers were on the wrong side of the brooms this past weekend courtesy of the first place Royals. Detroit’s now lost five straight games and are 1-9 over their last ten. Let’s dive into this matchup and we’ll round it out with a couple of bets so we can have some skin in the game tonight!
Detroit Tigers (7-16)
A.J. Hinch will turn to Jose Urena as the Tigers look to get back into the win column. Urena is a righty who boasts a 0-3 record to go along with a 4.57 ERA and he’s had issues early on in the year with walks. Urena’s dealt nine free passes over his first two starts (7.2 IP) and he’s seen that number come down to 3 over his most recent two starts (14.0 IP). The Domincan native has fanned 19 hitters over 21.2 total innings in 2021 and he relies big time on the sinker to induce ground ball outs. Urena throws that pitch 44.7% of the time this season and he occasionally mixes in a slider (26.5%), 4-seamer (20.5%), and changeup (8.3%).
Detroit has had some issues with scoring runs as of late. They were only able to muster up five runs over four games against the Royals last week and went for nine against the Pirates (three games) in the series prior. Hinch’s ballclub owns the worst wOBA in the MLB (.276) and they’re slugging a measly .361 (T-26). As for individual efforts, Jeimer Candelario leads the team in batting average at .276 and Harold Castro in next up at .261. Wilson Ramos leads the team in homers at six while Akil Baddoo has the lead with RBI’s at 13.
Chicago White Sox (12-9)
My inside source with the White Sox said that they will do away with all glass containers inside of the clubhouse moving forward after the incident last week with Lucas Giolito. (Just Kidding). Lucas was supposed to start on Sunday against the Rangers but allegedly cut his finger on a glass bottle in Cleveland. He got pushed back to today and he’ll be looking to bounce back after his last outing in Boston 8 days ago. Lucas was shelled for seven earned runs over 1.0+ IP on Patriots’ Day against the Red Sox. That start inflated his ERA up to 5.79 on the young season and he’s punched out 26 batters and owns a 1.29 WHIP.
Like I mentioned above, these teams are trending in opposite directions and that holds true with the bats. Chicago ranks 6th in team wOBA (.330) and 2nd in both OBP (.341), and BABIP (.317). A huge underlying reason for their success has been plate discipline. The Sox are 8th in BB% at 9.7%. Being able to work deep counts and make them pay off is huge in this league. They’ve also posted the fourth lowest K% at just (21.9%). That’s a recipe for success.
Final Analysis & Best Bet
I’m laying two different bets for this game as I think it could turn into a massacre. For starters, I’m taking Lucas Giolito to record a win (-120) for a unit. I’ll also be playing the White Sox -1.5 (-124) for 1.5 units. The cut to Lucas’ finger is hardly an issue. He said the move to push his start back was strictly precautionary and he pitched bullpens over the last couple of days and he’s feeling great. I think he goes 5+ IP tonight and exits with a lead, putting him in position to get the decision. Overall, I just believe this is a huge bounceback spot for the ace. Last start was an anomaly, maybe Cora was cheating again.. jk. But in all seriousness, we all know how much of a competitor Giolito is so I fully expect a big outing tonight. One thing I forgot to mention above is that the Tigers are last in K% at 28.9% so expect some punchouts from Lucas tonight.
As for the game, this is one of, if not the best hitting team in majors stacking up against a bottom feeder in Detroit. No offense to my Detroit readers, followers, and friends – I’m just telling it how it is. The Tigers have yet to cover the 1.5 in all four of Urena’s starts and I really like the way the Sox’ bats are trending right now. His control has been an issue all season and this White Sox team isn’t afraid to take their free passes. I’d say we’re in for a 6-1 game in favor of the South siders.
Trent’s MLB Betting Record
2021 MLB Season: 14-11 (+0.42 units). A $100 bettor has profited $42.09 this MLB szn.