Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: Preview, Analysis, & Best Bet – 9/11/20

By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)

9/11/20

It’s do or die time for the Detroit Tigers. They’re seven games out of the division but just two games out of the final Wild Card spot, chasing the Yankees. This is a huge series for them with just 17 games remaining in their regular season. As for the White Sox, they’re in sole possession of first place, one game and 1.5 games above the Twins and Indians, respectively. Let’s dive into this game as Lucas Giolito toes the rubber for the Southsiders and he’ll be opposed by Casey Mize.

Money Line: CWS -263, DET +235

Run Line: CWS -1.5 (-145), DET +1.5 (+125)

Total: 8.5 (O -115, U -105)

First Pitch: 7:10 CST, Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL

Detroit Tigers

Detroit split a doubleheader with the Cardinals yesterday in what was originally scheduled to be an off day. They lost game one by a score of 12-2 and picked up the dub in game two in a 6-3 effort. This will be their 10th game in eight days so they’ll need a deep start from Casey Mize as I can’t imagine their bullpen is 100%. That may be a tall task for the rookie seeing as he hasn’t entered the 5th inning in any of his starts this year. Overall, he’s 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. 

This Tiger offense is very middle of the pack. They’re 26th in OBP (.310), 21st in wOBA (.316), 17th in runs scored (202), and 13th in slugging percentage (.427). Their head to head stats against Giolito look like: .262/.305/.341 and with Jeimer Canderlaio going 5-14 and Austin Romine going 3-7.

Chicago White Sox

Rick Renteria will turn to his ace, Lucas Giolito on Friday night. Lucas is coming off a quality start against the Royals last Friday night in which he went 6.0 IP allowing three earned runs on five hits and no free passes. He’s faced the Tigers once this season, back on August 20th and it was a good outing. He hurled seven scoreless innings and allowed only three hits while striking out 13. The 26-year-old ace is second in the MLB in strikeouts (75), 22nd in ERA (3.29), and 34th in WHIP (0.99). 

As for the White Sox sticks, they’re pretty good as well. Chicago has the 2nd highest wOBA at .344 (SD, .351) and recently moved into first place in BABIP which stands at .321 entering Friday’s game. As for head to head stats, they faced Casey Mize back in his MLB debut back on 8/19. The Sox are 6-18 (.333) against the rookie righty with all six hits coming from different players. Edwin Encarnacion is 1-2 with a homerun. 

Final Analysis & Best Bet

A -263 money line, that’s too damn high! I would’ve expected this one to be in the -220 range but it makes sense considering Giolito is a savage and Casey Mize will be dominant one day, just not yet. As for this game, I’m going to take the over on 4.5 White Sox runs (-135) for a unit. We’re going to really trust the stats on this one even though my gut says five runs could be too much. Casey Mize is only in the 7th percentile in barrel % (12%), meaning 93% of the league is better in that regard. That doesn’t bode well for the rookie against a team like the White Sox. He’s in the 17th percentile in hard hit %, 47th percentile is exit velocity, and has an opponent’s BABIP of .356. This all leads me to believe that Chicago will be chomping at the bit tonight. Mize also allows 1.84 HR/9. Like I said, I think Mize is going to develop into a monster and I fear facing him several years down the road, but as for now, a good hitting team like the White Sox should be able to get to him and a depleted bullpen for five+ runs on Friday night. 

Trent’s Sports Betting Record

Trent’s Lifetime Lynq Sports Record: 180-129-4 (+36.708 units). A $100 bettor is up $3,670.80.

Trent’s 2020 MLB Record: 28-19 (+6.293 units). A $100 bettor is up $629.30 in 2020.

Trent’s 2019 MLB Record: 47-43-3 (+6.846 units). A $100 bettor profited $684.60 in 2019.

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