July 3, 2020

Lynq Sports

bet on it

What a great card Gulfstream Park has for Florida Derby Day! They will have a mandatory payout for the rainbow pick6 which is why I analyze all the races included below.

My final recommended ticket for $0.20 will be 2,6,7/1,2,6/5,9/9/1,3,7/7 ; Total cost= $10.80. I will play it multiple times for a better payout.

Sand Springs Stakes; GP Race 9

Distance/Surface: 8 Furlongs Turf

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite:):

  1. Picara 30-1
  2. Zofelle_IRE 9-2
  3. Souper Escape 20-1
  4. Smart Shot 20-1
  5. **NewspaperOfRecord 9-5
  6. La Signare_FR 8-1
  7. Getmotherarose 6-1
  8. East Moon 15-1
  9. Angel of Mischief 20-1
  10. Jakarta 8-1
  11. High Regard 20-1
  12. Valedictorian 8-1

Pace Scenario/Initial Thoughts: This will be a hotly contested pace with about half the field trying to get to the front. I expect favorite Newspaperofrecord might be the quickest out of the gate.

Horses I like:

  • Jakarta: Although this will be a hot pace, Jakarta looks to be the speed of the speed. She showed a big improvement in her 5 year old debut and I’m sure the switch to trainer Mike Maker did not hurt either. At 8-1 she has a huge chance.
  • Zofelle: She got 5th in her 4 year old debut, but she only lost by 2 ½ lengths. Now her connections cut her back to her best distance with Joel Rosario taking the mount. She’s 3-1 in her last four races and I expect her to keep improving.
  • Getmotherarose: This is another improving 4 year old who won by a length and half last out at this very same distance. She drops in class today and clearly loves this track. Big Chance.

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • Newspaperofrecord: She has failed as the favorite in 3 straight races! Now she comes back off an 8 month layoff as the favorite again?… I want know part of her. She was a beast as a 2 year old, but the rest of the crop has caught up to her. I like the cutback in distance for her and over the long term I do think she will be a better turf sprinter/miler. This will be a hot contested pace where Newspaperofrecord will not get an easy lead. Huge play against the favorite here!

Top Pick:

Zofelle is my top pick! The pace will set up for her nicely and I like the improvement I’ve seen as she’s matured. This is not the strongest field as she is well placed by trainer Brendan Walsh.

Orchid Stakes G-3; GP Race 10

Distance/Surface: 11 Furlongs Turf

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite:):

  1. Beale Street 15-1
  2. Kelsey’s Cross 10-1
  3. Irisa_ARG 30-1
  4. Quick Witted 15-1
  5. Gentle Ruler 7-2
  6. **Mean Mary 3-1
  7. Cap De Creus 10-1
  8. Beau Belle 8-1
  9. Get Explicit 12-1
  10. La Australiana 30-1
  11. Over Thinking 30-1
  12. Elizabeth Way_IRE 9-2

Pace Scenario/Initial Thoughts: Mean Mary has a huge pace advantage in this one and appears to be the only early speed in the race. Kelsey’s Crossj and Elizabeth Way will likely stalk right behind Mean Mary. Beal Street appears to be the best closer in the race. Could pick up the pieces if someone actually challenges Mean Mary on the front end.

Horses I like:

  • Mean Mary: She is the deserving favorite and now enters the race with a huge pace advantage. Will be tough to run down.
  • Beale Street: If Mean Mary gets beat, I think this will be the horse to do it. She showed huge improvement in her 1st race as a four year old and I would not be surprised if she continued to improve here. At 15-1 it is worth taking a shot on her.
  • Kelsey’s Cross: At 10-1 I lover her. She has slowly been improving as a 4 year old and has also improved since her connections have stretched her out. This will be the longest distance she has ever ran, but I think that will only benefit her running style.

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • Gentle Ruler: She is off a 5 month layoff and will likely go off as your post time favorite. Jockey Landeros has been ice cold this meet going 0 for 107 mounts! Wow that is hard to do. Her speed figures kept decreasing as the season went on last year. Although she has won a lot of races, I am going to try to beat at a short price.

Top Pick:

Mean Mary is my top pick. I cannot ignore the pace advantage she will have in this race. If she gets an easy lead early, say goodbye to your ticket if she’s off it.

Gulfstream Park Oaks; GP Race 11

Distance/Surface: 8.5 Furlongs Dirt

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite:):

  1. Inveterate 20-1
  2. Bajan Girl 20-1
  3. Spartanka 20-1
  4. Lake Avenue 9-2
  5. Spice is Nice 3-1
  6. Swiss Skydiver 10-1
  7. Lucrezia 8-1
  8. Dream Marie 15-1
  9. **Tonalist’s Shape 5-2
  10. Mrs. S. 15-1
  11. Addilyn 30-1
  12. Sunset Promise 20-1

Pace Scenario/Initial Thoughts: Tonalist’s Shape will try to bolt to the front again to get an easy lead. This time though, he should face some pace pressure form Lake Avenue and Lucrezia. Spice is Nice and Dream Marie look to be the best stalkers in the race. I don’t see any good closers today.

Horses I like:

  • Spice Is Nice: This will only be the 3rd start of this filly’s career! Sired by Curlin this filly should love the extra distance. Not only that, trainer Todd Pletcher is perhaps one of the best trainers at getting his runners prepared for the Kentucky Derby preps. If Spice is Nice improves at all off that last race, he’ll blow by the competition.
  • Tonalist’s Shape: Saffie Joseph will hopefully succumb to the same fate as Jason Servis and Jorge Navarro. But until then, its hard to throw out this juicer’s horses. This horse is undefeated and the only horse that has come close is Spice Is Nice. Tough to beat.

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • Everyone Else: The 2 favorites tower over this field!

Top Pick:

Spice is Nice is my top pick here. The added distance will help tremendously, and I’m not convinced that Tonalist’s shape will get an easy lead in this one. Also, trainer Saffie Joseph has really struggled since the FBI drug raids… I wonder why…? My point is I have way less questions about Spice is Nice. Its only her 3rd career start and has every right to improve!

Pan American Stakes G-2; GP Race 12

Distance/Surface: 12 Furlongs Turf

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite:):

  1. Channel Cat 9-2
  2. Bemma’s Boy 10-1
  3. Spooky Channel 20-1
  4. Current 30-1
  5. Go Poke the Bear 20-1
  6. Galleon Mast 15-1
  7. Prince of Arabia 30-1
  8. Manicomio 30-1
  9. **Zulu Alpha 3-5
  10. Focus Group 8-1

Pace Scenario/Initial Thoughts:

Horses I like:

  • Zulu Alpha: This horse has just been a beast this year! He’s won 2 straight graded stakes posting triple digit speed figures in both. The extra distance shouldn’t be a problem for him and this is the weakest field he’s faced this year. Deserving favorite. Single!

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • Focus Group: Any time Chad brown gives up on a turf horse, I am going to follow suit. He’s got a good back class, but he’s no match for Zulu Alpha. Focus group lost by 5 lengths last out as a big favorite. Now he comes off a 5 month layoff… Pass.
  • Channel Cat: This horse is consistent but doesn’t like to win. He has only won 1 race in his last 9. He has been low prices in almost all those races. He’s the best of the lower tier stakes horses but is not good enough to win this Grade 2.  

Top Pick:

Zulu Alpha will be a great play against later this year. But holy cow, this is the weakest Grade 2 field that I have seen in a long time. Tell me which one of these horses is going to come up and beat Zulu? I certainly can’t find one. Single!

Appleton Stakes G-3; GP Race 13

Distance/Surface: 8 Furlongs Turf

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite:):

  1. English Bee 8-1
  2. Hembree 12-1
  3. March to the Arch 8-1
  4. Ballagh Rocks 6-1
  5. Maraud 10-1
  6. Smart Remark 20-1
  7. Social Paranoia 10-1
  8. Dr. Edgar 20-1
  9. Louder Than Bombs 15-1
  10. **Sombeyay 7-2
  11. Mr. Dumas 12-1
  12. El Tormenta_ON 9-2

Pace Scenario/Initial Thoughts: There is a decent amount of speed in this race. Dr. Edgar will be your early front runner with Ballagh Rocks, Maraud, and Sombeyay right behind. English Bee and March to The Arch will be stalking the hot pace. Hembree and Social Paranoia will be your likely closers.

Horses I like:

  • March to The Arch: I wouldn’t be surprised if he went off as your favorite. The 8-1 morning line is silly. He finished 3rd last out but he only lost by a neck! Imagine if that was a win by a neck and all of the sudden, he’d be 3-1 on the morning line. This is his 3rd race off a long layoff and Tyler Gafflione retains the mount. For my money Gafflione is the best all around jockey in the country right now.
  • English Bee: He only finished ½ a length to Sombeyay last out on Febuary 29th. Keep in mind, Sombeyay was 2nd off a layoff in that race. English Bee on the other hand was racing for the first time as a 4 year old and yet he still almost won the race. English Bee had a much tougher trip than his competitors closing 5 lengths down the lane.  Manny Franco jumps off Mr. Dumas to take this mount. Love him at 8-1.
  • Social Paronoia: This horse has been stellar at longer distances, but now cuts back to a mile off a huge layoff. That probably suggests that Pletcher is gearing this horse up for a bigger race, but at 10-1 it is worth it to take a shot on this horse. This might be your classiest horse in the field at a great price.

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • Sombeyay: I think this is a bad favorite here. He’s only won 1 race in his last 8 starts. Consequently his 1 win was last out at Gulfstream Park. His win was decent, but he only won by ½ a length. There are plenty of longer shots on the board that have better speed figures. Play against.  
  • Ballagh Rocks: Saez jumps off to ride Sombeyay. This will be Ballagh Rocks’ 4th different jockey in as many races. Not a good sign.
  • El Tormenta: Off a 4 month layoff at a short price… I am trying to beat.

Top Pick:

English Bee is my top pick! I love the progression I’ve seen from him though I doubt we’ll be lucky enough to get 8-1 on him. I’d bet him all the way down to 4-1. He’s improving, 2nd off a layoff, has a great jockey, and will receive a great stalking trip!  

Florida Derby G-1; GP Race 14

Distance/Surface: 8 Furlongs Turf

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite:):

  1. As Seen on TV 12-1
  2. Shivaree 30-1
  3. Disc Jockey 20-1
  4. Soros 30-1
  5. Gouverneur Morris 8-1
  6. Ajaaweed 20-1
  7. **Tiz The Law 6-5
  8. My First Grammy 50-1
  9. Independence Hall 9-2
  10. Candy Tycoon 20-1
  11. Sassy But Smart 50-1
  12. Ete Indien 4-1

Pace Scenario/Initial Thoughts: You must think that Florent Geroux is going to fly Ete Indien out of the gate to try to make the lead. From the 12 hole, I think it’s the only way that Ete Indien can win the race. As Seen on TV will likely try to push the pace with him. Tiz the Law, Gouverneur Morris, and Independence Hall should get perfect stalking trips. The only decent closer in the race looks to be Ajaaweed. May be worth a look if you think the pace will be too hot.

Horses I like:

  • Tiz The Law: I thought this horse was overpriced last out in the Holy Bull and boy did he prove me wrong. He could not have looked more impressive pulling away to win by 3 lengths. His breeding suggests that he’ll like the added distance and he’s got a great post position. Manny Franco retains the mount. I like the workout pattern too. He fired a quick bullet work on march 8th followed by 2 slow workouts in late march. That tells me that they didn’t need to see anything else from this horse. He is fit and ready to fire. The deserving favorite.

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • Independence Hall: I thought this horse was way overhyped as a 2 year old. He had no excuse to lose last out where he was run down by Solo Volante who lost as a big favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby. I also don’t think IH will appreciate the step up in distance. I could see IH turning into a decently competitive miler. But today he is just outmatched. Play against.  
  • Ete Indien: I hate picking against this horse, but in this spot I’ll have too. First, he got a terrible post drawing the 12 hole for the second race in a row. Last race he was able to clear the field and get to the lead, but this is a much tougher spot. The horse that got 2nd to Ete Indien in the Fountain of Youth was Candy Tycoon. Just for grins, Candy Tycoon is 20-1 in this race. In other words, although Ete Indien looked very impressive in the FOY, I don’t think he beat much. He also finished 3 lengths back of Tiz the Law back on February 1st. Did he get 3 lengths better in 1 month? I highly doubt it.

Top Pick:

Tiz the Law is the deserving favorite here. He is lightly raced and clearly improving as a 3 year old. He has great tactical speed and he will be able to pounce on the early leaders here. He may be the only east coast horse who has a chance to win the Kentucky Derby.