By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)
It feels fantastic to get back to putting my picks out to the world and having action alongside you guys. Let’s make some money this week! Here’s what we’re on today for the free pick of the day:
Chicago Cubs (-105) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-105)
Money Line: CHC (-107) | STL (-103)
Run Line: CHC -1.5 (+150) | STL (-170)
Total: 9 (O -104, U -116)
First Pitch: 8:15 ET | Busch Stadium | St. Louis, MO
If these two 46-47 teams want to make a run at the playoffs then they’ll need to get it going during this four-game set. Both squads are 9.0 games back in the N.L. Central and chasing the Milwaukee Brewers. Neither organization wants to settle with a 2-2 split. It’ll be Alec Mills going for the Northsiders while Jake Woodford toes the rubber for the Cards.
I’m backing St. Louis on the money line (-103) tonight for a unit. Chicago’s been in shambles recently as they’ve lost 14 out of their last 18 contests. Rossy’s side will enter with some confidence as they just took two out of three from the bottom feeding DBacks while the Cardinals had the same result in their weekend series with the Giants. One edge we’re looking at here is the discrepancy in home/road records for these two teams. The Cubs are just 18-30 on the road with the Cardinals being 25-19 at home.
As for the pitching matchups, St. Louis has seen Alec Mills for 39 at-bats and they’ve collected 11 hits (.227). Matt Carpenter is 3-8 with two homers and Tommy Edman has seen him really well as he’s 6-7 against the righty with a pair of doubles. Goldy’s 0-6 with three K’s and Arenado hasn’t faced Mills yet since coming to St. Louis. Jake Woodford has thrown against the Cubs twice this season for 2.1 innings of work and gave up two earned runs on three hits. Both of the runs came via the longball at Wrigley with Wilson Contreras and Sergio Alcantara each blasting one. Another thing that popped out to me is that Chicago’s offense is ranked 29th in team batting average (.218) when opposing right-handed pitchers.
Ultimately, this game is basically a toss up (as the odds suggest). But I think there’s value with St. Louis as the Cubs struggle away from home. That includes Alec Mills not being able to find his footing away from Wrigley. His 4.84 ERA is elevated to 6.49 when playing on the road. Take the Cardinals to win the series opener tonight.
The Pick: Cardinals ML (-103)
Trent’s Free Picks Betting Record
0-0 (+0.00 Units) | A $100 bettor is even.