July 8, 2020

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Genoa vs. Juventus: Preview & Best Bet – 6/30/20

By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)

6/30/20

We dropped our best bet yesterday due to an incompetant performance from Crystal Palace’s offense but we’re looking to get back on track Tuesday from Italy. Nothing gets me going like watching Ronaldo and the boys play some Serie A action on a Tuesday afternoon!

Money Line: GEN +600, JUVE -238, DRAW +350

Spread: JUVE -1, -1.5 (-108)

Total: 2.5, 3 (O +100, U -120)

Kickoff: 3:45 ET, Luigi Ferraris Stadium, Genoa, ITL

Genoa

17th place Genoa hosts Juventus on Tuesday afternoon and will be looking to grab a point and put some distance between themselves and the relegation zone. Genoa has a record of 6-8-14, scored 34 goals, and conceded 53. As for recent form, they’ve gone DLWLW with their most recent outing being a 2-2 draw on the road against last place Brescia. 

As for individual efforts, The Griffin are led by both Goran Pandev and Dominco Criscito who have tallied seven goals each. It’s worth mentioning that Criscito is a defenseman, so kind of interesting that he has a share of the lead for goals scored. Mattia Perin will likely do the goalkeeping on Tuesday afternoon. He’s made 11 starts on the season and racked up three clean sheets while conceding 18 goals and making 40 saves. 

Juventus

At 22-3-3, Juventus owns the top spot in Serie A while 69 points (nice). Up next in terms of standings is 2nd place Lazio who has 65 points. Since the restart, they’ve been red hot on both ends, going 2-0-0 while outsourcing opponents 6-0. Fun fact- there have been red cards in both games. No nonsense in Serie A, apparently. As a team, they’re third in the league in scoring and attempts with 56 goals and 370 shots. 

As we all know this offense runs through one man: Cristiano Ronaldo. He’s notched 23 goals on the season and next up is forward Paulo Dybala. Dybala has scored nine goals and added four assists on the season. On the back end, both of those clean sheets since the restart belong to the Polish phenom, Wojciech Szczesny. The keeper has amassed 10 clean sheets in Serie A play while conceding just 17 goals in 21 starts and making 71 saves. 

Final Analysis & Best Bet

Alright, folks, you already know I’m rolling with Juventus on the goal line here at -1, -1.5 (-108). Genoa is 0-1-1 since the restart and got hammered in their lone home game, giving up four goals to Parma. They’ve given up 3+ goals in three out of four home matches. Additionally, according to Flashscore.com, Genoa will be without leading goal scorer Dominico Criscito who has a tendon injury. That’ll likely cause some issues on both ends of the pitch considering he’s a defenseman. Also, it’s worth mentioning that all three of Genoa’s goals since the restart have come from the penalty spot (Once again alluding to Serie A being the no nonsense league awarding all these cards and PK’s). So my takeaway from this is that their offense has been pretty slow out of the gate. I believe that Szczesny and a back line including Leonardo Bonucci and Matthijs de Ligt should be able to get their third clean sheet since the layoff. My guess is this one finishes in the range of 3-0 or 3-1 if Genoa can somehow muster some offense. I’m also going to lay a unit on the Juventus money line (-238) as I don’t see them letting three points slip away against a sorry team like Genoa this late in the season.

Trent’s Record on Soccer Picks

4-2 (+1.718 units). A $100 bettor is up $171.80 in 2020. 

For more sports talk, follow me on Twitter: @trentbets