April 17, 2021

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Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: Preview, Analysis, & Best Bet – 8/29/20

By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)


Your first place White Sox are absolutely rolling right now. They’ve won ten out of eleven games and I saw a tweet from ESPN Stats & Info saying that they’ve tied the franchise record for homers in a month at 51 (August ‘01, July ‘03). The A.L. Central sees a three-team log jam atop the standings with both the Indians and White Sox winning and picking up a half game on the Twins, tying all three for first. As for K.C., they still reside in the cellar at 12-20, although they played an excellent game last night.

Money Line: CWS -154, KC +142

Run Line: CWS -1.5 (+120), KC +1.5 (-140)

Total: 9.5 (O -120, U +100)

First Pitch: 1:10 CST, Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL

Kansas City Royals

I’ve been saying this all season and even before the season, I don’t hate this roster. As we saw last night, they’re tough and they’ll go toe to toe with anyone in the division. Tonight they’ll send the rookie, Brady Singer to the bump. Singer has faced the Twins his last three outings, allowing nine runs over 14.2 IP. He’ll once again get one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball in the Sox so he’ll need to be on his A-game. Singer is 1-3 on the season with a 5.16 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 27 punchouts. The 24-year-old righty has only pitched into the 6th one time this season so look for Mike Matheney to put that bullpen to use once again. 

As for hitting, the Royals boast the 22nd best offense in terms of wOBA (.301), 21st in homeruns (37), and 25th in OBP (.308). They’re basically led by Whit Merrifield, who is slashing .297/.345/.500 on the season but is only 1-6 (.167) against Dylan Cease, the Sox starter. Alex Gordon might have a nice afternoon as he’s 2-5 (.400) with a solo shot. 

Chicago White Sox

Rick Renteria will give Dylan Cease the nod on Saturday afternoon. Cease is having a stellar 2nd season, boasting a record of 4-2 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Last time out, the righty threw a quality start in a losing effort to the Cubs. He went 6.0 IP, giving up just 2 ER on 5 H and 3 BB. I basically always say this in my previews when Cease is pitching, he needs to get his control under control. He’s prone to the longball and there’s nothing wrong with giving up a solo shot here and there but if you’re letting guys on via the free pass and someone goes deep, that’s when they start to hurt. He’s young, only 24, so he’ll keep getting better as his career progresses. As for head to head stats, you saw that Alex Gordon has a little bit of success off of Cease and everyone on the roster who has faced him has a hit against him except Jorge Soler (0-5). 

As for the Sox offense, they improved to 9-0 against LHP – what a trend that we’ve been cashing in on all season. Singer is a righty though and the Sox have a predominantly right-handed lineup. Look for that silky smooth swing of Yoan Moncada to have a nice day as he’s much better from the left side of the batter’s box. Maybe Mazara gets his first bomb in a Sox uni today? We’ll see. 

Final Analysis & Best Bet

The White Sox enter today’s contest with an 11-12 record against right-handed starters while the Royals are 10-17 in the same category. I mentioned that Cease doesn’t fully have his control in check but I don’t think that’ll have a massive impact on this game as the Royals are 28th in BB% at just 7.4%. Dylan Cease faced the Royals back on August 2nd and went 6.0 IP allowing only 2 ER on 5 H and 1 BB – another quality start. Cease sits at 98 mph with his fastball which is the 98th percentile while his fastball spin rate is 94th percentile in the majors. All things considered, I think he’s going to have an excellent outing against the divisional foes. 

As for Brady Singer, he’s in the 25th percentile in exit velocity and 12th percentile in hard hit percentage. That doesn’t bode well against a team that is on an absolute heater like the White Sox. I’ll be playing the White Sox money line (-154) for 1.5 units today! We’ve won five straight White Sox bets and it’s #WinnersOnlySaturday so let’s keep it rolling! The Sox have won eight straight home games as well. Let’s get it.

For more sports talk, follow me on Twitter: @trentbets