by Zack Lambert (@bigbird8224)
November 30th, 2020
SS Lazio at Borussia Dortmund
Spread: Dortmund (-1); O/U: 3.5
Moneyline: Lazio +425, Dortmund -165, Draw +330
Time/Location: 3:00 ET, BVB Stadion Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany
Lazio were concerningly bad at the beginning of the season but things are looking up for the Italian club, even though they just dropped their match in Serie A. They’re only second in their group with eight points, behind Dortmund who have nine, but their play recently domestically and internationally indicates that they might take this game. The club will finally be at full strength and have no reported Covid cases, though who knows how accurate that is.
Lazio are averaging two goals and one goal allowed per game in the Champions League, earning two wins and two draws in their matches so far. They’ve played well enough on defense and in the midfield to not lose any games, but I want to see that killer instinct that they possessed towards the turn of the year last season. The attack can only get better with Immoblie’s form in the dumpster and the midfield are playing sustainable football. Turning this match into a victory might flip that switch that’s needed to make this team one of the best in the world again.
And now we have Dortmund, a team that loses despite having a much better team than nearly any other side in the world. Yes, I know, the team is young, but if Lucien Favre can coach some consistency into the youngsters then I don’t believe there’s any way they can lose outside of being injured. Dortmund have dropped to fourth with two losses in their last three in the Bundesliga, but they’re atop of Group F and can secure the top spot with a win on Wednesday.
The starting fullbacks, Raphael Guerriro and Thomas Meunier, are likely out for this match, as is Nico Schulz. Those players will be missed from the team and it’ll be weaker without them, but they’re still far from lacking in terms of talent. The central defense and defensive midfielders are finally healthy, plus the wingers and attackers are all ready to go. This offense is one of the most dangerous in the world and will test the limits of Lazio’s defense, however it won’t be a cakewalk. Lazio are close to being at the same level of talent but there are places to exploit. Dortmund will need a clean match to win and they’re capable of it.
Analysis and Pick
This game is pretty well set. 3.5 is a good number for the total considering the offensive talent on either side and the clean bills of health either way. I also like where the spread is considering Dortmund is slightly more talented as well as at home, so they’re deserving favorites. But momentum has Lazio trending upward and they’re not a team who beat themselves often, so they can keep it close. I don’t see Dortmund winning this match by two goals and I can see Lazio actually coming away with a win, so take Lazio to cover the +1 spread and keep things tight.