by Zack Lambert
June 20th, 2020
Leicester City at Watford
Spread: Watford (+0.5); O/U: 2.5
Moneyline: Leicester City +105, Watford +260, Draw +250
Time/Location: 7:30 ET, Vicarage Road, Watford, England
Leicester City (DLLWW)
Leicester have put on a very good performance this season and have found themselves in third because of it. Five points clear of fourth place Chelsea, Leicester still need to keep up pressure, but there’s a good amount of breathing room to keep that same pressure off of their own shoulders. Their last five isn’t exactly inspiring, especially with a loss to Norwich, but last we saw the Foxes they were thrashing Aston Villa 4-0.
In that same game however, Leicester lost their best player on the season Ricardo Periera. The right back has been ruled out for the season by Brendan Rodgers which certainly hurts the team, but his absence shouldn’t be one that derails the season. He’s played prolifically on the right flank but the position is less impactful than a striker or number 10’s role. Leicester will be able to weather this issue with a strong attack and very adept central defenders.
Watford have only won three matches this calendar year and past the twelfth day of the January they’ve won only a single match. You can see it up in their last five. That match? 3-0 over Liverpool. Watford are a curious team that have played some curious football this season, but none of it was as curious as smashing a team on an Invincibles run to turn around and lose 1-0 to Crystal Palace. Watford really struggle to score and are just two goals out of relegation zone, currently sitting 17th on goal differential.
The Hornets have been abysmal this season with players like Roberto Pereyra, Danny Welbeck, and Andre Gray falling completely flat. 31-year-old Troy Deeney, author of one of the most stunning goals English football has ever seen against this very Leicester team, is still the main option for the team as he leads Watford in both rating and goals scored (6). Were the attack not the worst in football by far, just 27 goals in 29 matches, the defense might be recognized as a good unit, but there’s no opportunity when they’re constantly having to fend for themselves. It’s too late to make any major adjustments so Watford just need to hope they can pull a rabbit out of a hat to slip back into the Premier League next season.
Analysis and Pick
When I mentioned I was writing this match, my boss here at Lynq Sports asked me if the Leicester moneyline is a trap. It is not. +105 for Leicester to win is fantastic value and one you should take advantage of. Don’t try to dupe yourself into another avenue of thought; Leicester have something to play for and Watford are a very, very bad team. Jamie Vardy is going to take advantage of that.
As for the score of the match, I can’t imagine that Watford will break through in this match. With a lot of older forwards coming off a long break against a very good defense, I don’t see the Watford players finding nylon. That being said, I don’t see Leicester being overwhelmingly terrifying either. Brendan Rodgers understands the importance of this match but he also knows his men are coming off a break and will need to ease back in. Leicester can’t afford any more major injuries. Take the under and Leicester to cover the spread.