by Zack Lambert
June 17th, 2020
Mainz 05 at Borussia Dortmund
Spread: Dortmund (-2); O/U: 3.5
Moneyline: Mainz +1000, Dortmund -375, Draw +475
Time/Location: 2:30 ET, Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany
Mainz 05 (LDLWL)
There’s not too much good to say of Mainz this season. They haven’t been playing particularly good football at any point and that isn’t going to be changing now. At this point they’re just hoping that the beating they receive isn’t too bad as they’re teetering dangerously close to the relegation play-off position in both points and goal differential.
There have been some highlights for the team this season, however. Young Swedish forward Robert Quaison and a large portion of the main contributors are players under the age of 28. That bodes well for the future no matter what league they compete in next season. As long as there is consistent development, Mainz is in very good hands and could be a phenomenal side if some of the youth breaks out.
Borussia Dortmund (WLWWW)
It was just hours ago from the time I’m writing this that Bayern clinched yet another Bundesliga title and the hopes of the Dortmund fans were deflated yet again. Maybe with a full season of Håland and whatever comes from Sancho spent wisely they can make another run next season, but for now things are boring in Germany. That isn’t to say that there isn’t meaningful football left to play, however.
Dortmund are closely tailed by Leipzig and will need every cent from the competition that they can afford. Competing with Bayern isn’t a cheap business. So while beating Mainz may not be a particularly difficult task, it’s absolutely a necessary one. Dortmund has a ton of firepower and flexibility, so they’ll use all of it to demolish their opponents considering there are no competitions left to play for.
Analysis and Pick
I’ve made it especially clear that Dortmund are going to win this game. Ask any of the Mainz players, they’re going to lose this match. The question is by how much. It isn’t fun to have to lay money on a -375 line, but with the over hovering at a tantalizing even, I have to suggest that play. I see Dortmund putting up four on their own so anything that Mainz can contribute will be icing on the cake. And with the spread being at two, I recommend taking Dortmund to cover it, another even payout. Remember to stay the course for these types of blitzing teams like Dortmund and Atalanta, hammer the over.