By: Matthew Vale
Spread: Maryland -3.5, Total: 131
March 3rd 2021. 8 PM Welsh-Ryan Arena, Evanston, IL
From a few highly ranked up matchups, we turn our attention to a bottom of the table matchup in the Big 10. Even though this game is relatively meaningless, that doesn’t mean there isn’t value here as the Maryland Terrapins take on the Northwestern Wildcats in Evanston.
Maryland Terrapins (15-10, 9-9)
The Terps are trucking, riding a 5 game winning streak coming into this game with the Wildcats. Most recently, they thumped a relatively hot Michigan State team by 17 at home and before that, they pulled out an even more impressive road win in a 9 point road win over Rutgers at the RAC. In those two games, neither of Maryland’s opponents scored over 60 points for the game. The Terps did most of their defensive work from deep forcing the Knights and Spartans respectively to shoot less than 30% from deep. The balance of the Maryland offense has been very impressive as well as their top 5 scorers had double digit points against Rutgers and their top 4 scorers had at least double digit points against MSU.
Northwestern Wildcats (7-14, 4-13)
The drought is finally over as Northwestern ends their losing streak beating Minnesota by 8 on the road for their first victory since the day after Christmas. Boo Buie was the star in this one as he had 25 points including 19 of them in the 2nd half to complete the comeback from Minnesota leading by as much as 14. Defense was the key in this one for the Wildcats as they held the Gophers to 37% shooting on the night including a dismal 14.8% from deep. The defense is improving for Northwestern as of late with 3 out of their last 4 games NW have held their opponents under 70 points. Even though NW’s season is effectively over they would love to continue to play the role of spoiler.
Maryland has won 5 straight games over Northwestern and they have won those games by an average of 12 points. In those 5 games, the Terps are 4-1 ATS. Maryland also is riding a 5 game winning streak straight up and in those 5 games the Terps have gone 4-1 ATS. During this stretch, Maryland has held its opponents to under 59 PPG. This fact combined with the facts that 8 of Maryland’s last 10 games have gone under and 4 of NW’s last 5 games have gone under, I think the under is very likely to hit. Maryland is playing great basketball right now and should easily win this game. That being said I like Maryland ATS in a correlated parlay with the under might be a very nice bet, but my best bet will be to take the safer route and keep them separate bets. Take Maryland-3.5 and under 131 each for one unit.
Matthew’s college basketball record 20/21: 9-7
Lynq Sports Monthly Membership$199.00 / month