Mon. Sep 23rd, 2019

Michael’s CFB Week 2 Best Bets

Last Week:

We went 4-1 in best bets last week! More importantly, my beloved Boilermakers won a football game! Our only ATS loss was Tulane +17.5, where we lost the spread by only ½ a point! Tough loss, but we are now 7-3 on best bets and 15-11 overall on the cfb season. Let’s keep it rolling!

  1. BYU +4.5 vs. USC
    1. BYU cashed for us as a 4-point dog to Tennessee last week and now we are looking to back them again in a great spot! I say this a lot, but I don’t think the Associated Press watches any of these games when they put out the rankings. USC is the 23rd best team in the country?! Really?! With their starting quarterback out for the season? Congratulations, you beat Stanford! Stanford is terrible this year, and that will get more apparent as the season goes on. BYU is a great home team and especially good when they are getting points. USC’s coach Clay Helton is also terrible as a favorite. He is 7-15-1 ATS in this role. True frosh USC QB Kendon Slovis will be making his first road start in a very hostile environment. BYU is coming home with a lot of confidence. They will have a wild home crowd (as wild as a Mormon crowd in Provo, UT can get) to back them up. Expect BYU to dominate USC in the trenches and move the ball on this very questionable USC defense (gave up 335 yards to terrible Stanford offense). The wrong team is favored here. BYU wins 30-21. Take BYU +4.5!
  2. Virginia -7.5  vs. Florida State.
    1. In my first article ever for the lynq https://lynqsports.com/college-football-handicapping-angles/, I explained the concept of what I call “falling knife” teams. Betting on these teams is like catching a falling knife; risky with little reward if you are successful. Ladies and gentlemen, Florida state is looking like a classic falling knife team. Based solely on results, this line should be closer to Virginia -10.5. But no, everyone just assumes that FSU can’t be as bad as they have looked. I’m here to tell you that they can absolutely  be this bad. They could barely muster up enough to beat the 4th best team in the state of Louisiana. This isn’t just a play against FSU, Virginia has quietly become an excellent football program. Virginia beat a very respectable Pitt team on the road to start the season and dominated an FCS opponent as they should. Virginia has an easy game in old dominion on deck, so they can focus all their energy on dominating Florida State. Virginia will get ahead early and this defeated FSU team will give up. Take Virginia -7.5!
  3. Arkansas St. +33 @ Georgia
    1. Georgia will win this game. Not really a hot take there, I know. But 33 points is just a disrespectful amount of points to give this Arkansas State team. Last week they were only 1 point favorites to beat UNLV. What happened? They accumulated 498 yards in a 43-17 blowout of the running rebels. Simply, Vegas doesn’t have this team rated correctly. Georgia is great, but keep in mind they only beat Vanderbilt by 24 in week 1. Vanderbilt got dominated by Purdue last week. Georgia hosts Notre Dame next week in a key look ahead spot for them. Even if they get up early, they will want to rest their starters as much as possible before the Irish come to town. Look for Ark St. to keep this game close enough throughout and get some garbage TD’s at the end. Georgia wins 40-21. Take Arkansas State +33!
  4. Air Force +3.5 @ Colorado
    1. This is a great spot for Air force. Colorado is coming off 2 misleading wins and is unjustifiably confident. Air force is coming off a bye week with plenty of rest. Air force runs a very efficient triple option year in and year out. Question; can Colorado stop the run?! The answer is fuck no! The Colorado defense gave up 179 rushing yards to Nebraska and 131 rushing yards to a bad CSU team. An already tired Colorado team will be dog tired by the end of this one as Air Force runs it down their throats. Air force wins 35-31. Take Air Force +3.5!
  5. UNC +3 @ Wake Forest:
    1. UNC is another team that cased a ticket for me last week. And yet again they are getting no respect as a 3-point dog to Wake Forest.  What does this team have to do?! They beat South Carolina in week 1 and then go beat Miami who was coming off 14 days of rest! Who has Wake beaten? Rice and Utah State….. Forgive me if I’m not impressed. Wake has good offensive numbers and will be able to put up some points. But again, look at their competition. Their defense gave up a combined 56 points to those two teams, so I don’t see them getting many stops against UNC.  The wrong team is favored here. UNC gets their 3rd straight upset of the season 42-35. Take UNC +3!

Michael’s 2019 CFB Record:

All Picks: 15-11, 57% , +2.88 units

Best Bets: 7-3, 70% , +3.70 units


 [MV1]