Michael’s Week 4 CFB Best Bets

Northwestern +9 vs. Michigan State:

I’m picking a number and not the team here. 9 points is way too many for a Michigan State offense that leaves a lot to be desired. MSU comes into this game off a crushing last second loss to Arizona State. Northwestern is a historically great home underdog. In their last 27 home games as a dog, NW is 19-8 ATS. On the flip side Michigan State struggles as a road favorite. In their last 12 games in this role, they are 3-9 ATS. Northwestern has a sneaky good home field advantage in Evanston especially in these early 11 am EST start times. Visiting teams usually come out a little sluggish and I expect no different from MSU today. Take NW +9!

Washington -6.5 @ BYU:

BYU has proved to be a strong team this year, but this will be a tough spot for them as they come off two brutal overtime wins in a row. Washington is very familiar with BYU, so their home field advantage will be limited here. BYU usually beats teams that they can out physical in the trenches. Washington won’t be one of those teams as they out-recruit BYU on both the offensive and defensive lines. They have a great veteran QB  in Jacob Eason and one of my favorite coaches in the country Chris Peterson. We’re getting the better quarterback, better coaching staff, and more rested team at under a touchdown. Take Washington -6.5!

Oregon -10.5 @ Stanford:

This is Stanford’s worst team in a decade. Although David Shaw is a good coach, he won’t be able to overcome his lack of talent this year. This is especially apparent on the defensive side of the ball. The last 2 weeks they have given up an average of 7.8 yards per play. That’s scary once you consider they are going up against one of the best quarter backs in CFB in Justin Herbert. Oregon is in a revenge spot here as they blew a 21 point lead to the Cardinals last year. Oregon is the only PAC12 team with a legitimate shot to make the college football playoff. But to do that, they will have to win games by margin. Oregon is significantly better than Stanford at every important position. Oregon will get up early, and I could see this getting ugly. Take Oregon -10.5!

Washington St. -18.5 vs. UCLA:

I’m starting to see quit in this UCLA team. Also, how bad of a coaching job has this been for Chip Kelly!? This supposedly offensive savant has had the most predictable non-creative offense that I’ve ever seen. Also, how hard is it to recruit to UCLA!? I get why it might be difficult to recruit to West Lafayette, IN… But come on, UCLA’s campus looks like paradise. “Women, Weed, and Weather” as my friend Kendrick Lamar would say. But I digress. The point is this bet is just as much a play against UCLA as it is on Washington State. Does UCLA have a running game? They are averaging 2.2 yards per carry. Does UCLA have a passing game? They only complete 47% of their passes. What about their defense? UCLA has given up 31.7 points per game and 6.3 yards per play. Its bad guys, really bad. On the other side, Washington State has a top 5 passing offense, with no reason to slow down today. Take Washing State -18.5!

SMU +8 @ TCU:

This is my favorite bet of the week. TCU beats up on a Sindelar-less Purdue team, and now they are suddenly 8-point favorites to a 3-0 SMU team?! I don’t think so. Did the linemakers even watch this Purdue game? It was only 13-6 at half… That is a slow start for a team that was coming off a bye. What was startling was TCU’s lack of a pass game. They only completed 33% of their passes for 75 yards. The Purdue backup qb threw for 181 yards!! TCU’s offense is not nearly good enough to cover big numbers like this. Just for grins, SMU has won and covered all 3 games by margin. They average 6.8 yards per play and have only given up 4.5 yards per play on defense. I think SMU wins this straight up! Take SMU +8!

Michael’s 2019 CFB Record:

All Picks: 18-15, up 1.6 units, 54.5 %

Best Bets: 9-6, 60%