November 24, 2020

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Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: Analysis & Best Bets – 9/20/20

By: Hector Duran & Trent Pruitt

We’re back at it tonight with another collaboration preview for tonight’s Sunday Night Baseball game between the Twins and the Cubs at Wrigley! Cy Young candidate Yu Darvish takes the ball for David Ross’ side while Jose Berrios gets the nod from Rocco Baldelli in the rubber match. Let’s dive into this one as Hector and I break down this game from the North side and give our best bets! 

Money Line: CHC -147, MIN +136

Run Line: CHC -1.5 (+145), MIN +1.5 (-165)

Total: 7.5 (O +100, U -120)

First Pitch: 6:08 CST, Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL

Hector’s Analysis & Best Bet

We are in for a great pitching matchup tonight in the rubber game. Yu Darvish has been excellent all season and looks to build his case for the NL Cy Young award.  He is 7-2 with a 1.86 ERA tonight and a WHIP under 1.00. In his last start, he went 7 innings while giving up 9 hits, 2 runs, 1 walk to go along with 7 strikeouts and earned himself a no decision. As for Berrios, he has not been that great this season.  Trent will dive into his numbers in his piece but Berrios has given up at least one run in all but one start and I think that trend continues tonight. The Twins bats were stifled by Kyle Hendricks on Friday and I can see Yu carving them up again tonight.  The Twins bats were able to take advantage of some bad pitches that Alec Mills left up in the zone and he paid for it.  Darvish has been locked in all season and has been making great pitches.  

For this game, I am going to take the under on 3.5 Twins runs at -135.  Yu Darvish should be able to cruise through this lineup and keep the baserunners to a minimum. Darvish throws a ton of strikes and gets a ton of strikeouts which may cause some fits for this offense. THe weather will also play a factor and the ball does not carry as well in cooler weather so runs may be limited tonight. Also, completely unrelated to my bet but a fun fact is that Javy Baez and Jose Berrios are brother(s?) in law so keep an eye on the matchup tonight; should be some fun entertainment.

Trent’s Analysis & Best Bet

It’s pretty wild to me that Yu Darvish is actually in contention for a Cy Young award at this point. And it may be because my Twitter feed is filled with White Sox news (since that’s who I usually cover) and gambling banter, I feel he’s not getting enough love. Although I’m sure if I flipped on The Score it’d be 50 minutes of Cubs, 8 minutes or Bears, and 2 minutes of White Sox talk, so I’m sure he’s getting plenty of praise from the media.

As for this game, I faded Berrios by the way of taking the over earlier in the week when he pitched on the southside and I guess it backfired as we didn’t cash the ticket, but at the same time, there were plenty of baserunners left on base so it was the right bet. Berrios is one of those guys who is way better at home than on the road. His road ERA is 5.76 and he has a WHIP of 1.72 – yikes. Additionally, he’s tied for 9th amongst pitchers with 23 walks on the season and on the flip side, the Cubs are 9th in BB% offensively (10.3%). 

So I’m going to roll with the second most exciting prop bet in all of baseball (“Will there be a run in the 1st inning” is the most exciting) by taking the under on 24.5 total hits, runs, and errors in the game at -115 for a unit. Such a great prop, you have action from the first pitch to the last! Despite Berrios being appalling on the road, his WHIP is inflated due to the walks. Luckily, in this bet, walks don’t affect our bet so walk as many guys as you want, Jose! Bottom line is that Berrios has been improving and returning to “ace form” for Baldelli and this also has the feeling of a late September game that won’t see too many hits and runs. It’s getting kind of chilly in the Chi so those longballs won’t be flying out as if it was humid and I think we have a really nice chance to cash this ticket tonight. Oh, and Yu Darvish doesn’t worry me one bit. He’s going to deal tonight.

For more sports betting talk, follow me on Twitter: @trentbets