Opening Week: Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: Preview & Best Bet – 4/7/2021

By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets

Let’s break out the brooms this afternoon! The Sox picked up the win and moved the series to 2-0 against the Seattle Mariners last night behind a 5-RBI night from Jose Abreu and a 10-strikeout night from Lucas Giolito. Giolito wasn’t perfect and lacked control at certain points yet he still willed his way to 10 punchouts and basically took over the game himself. If you missed it, there were a few more lackadaisical defensive moments that ran up Lucas’ pitch count and forced him to exit after only 5.1 innings. Final thing, the incredible record moves to 17-0 against LHP since the beginning of 2020. James Paxton left the game after only 1.1 IP, so hopefully he’ll be fine and make a quick recovery. But for today, the boys look for the sweep against the M’s so let’s dive into the matchup and break down our best bet! 

Money Line: CWS -152 | SEA +140

Run Line: CWS -1.5 (+100) | SEA +1.5 (-120)

Total: 8.5 (O -110, U -110)

First Pitch: 3:10 CST | T-Mobile Park | Seattle, WA

Chicago White Sox (3-3)

Tony La Russa will turn to Dallas Keuchel as the Southsiders look to move above .500 for the first time this season. The lefty wasn’t perfect in his season debut against the Angels last Friday so he’ll be looking for a bounce back opportunity. But, in his defense, the Angels offense is probably a top 5-8 offense in the league so he should have better fortune today. He made it 4.0 IP and gave up four earned runs (6 total) on 69 pitches and punched out four batters. Overall, we usually know what we’re going to get with Dallas Keuchel. He’s a soft throwing sinkerballer who wants to pitch to soft contact and get a lot of ground balls. Keuchel utilized the sinker 39.1% of the time, his cutter 23.2%, the change 20.3%, and the slider 11.6% last time out. 

Offensively, the White Sox piled up 10 runs on 10 hits last night. Baseball’s a simple game and if you can hit homeruns with guys on base, you tend to have good fortune. Zack Collins had a three run bomb, Luis Robert hit a two run homer on a hanging curve, and Jose Abreu added the other five RBI’s with a SAC fly in the 7th and a grand slam in the 8th. Andrew Vaughn collected his first career hit last night on a low fastball that he lasered into the right-center gap. Congrats to Andrew! But the fact that Chicago put up ten runs last night without Tim Anderson and with Yoan Moncada, Andrew Vaughn, and Leury Garcia all struggling should scare people. If these guys all get it going at the same time then watch out.

Seattle Mariners (2-3)

This is a terrible matchup for the Mariners this series based solely on the fact that their starting rotation is bolstered by four lefties. Luckily for them, they’ll turn to a right-handed pitcher in Justin Dunn to try and salvage a game in this three game set. Dunn is a 25-year-old out of Boston College who was drafted by the Mets in 2016. He’s made 14 career starts (10 last year) and boasts a record of 4-1 to go along with a 4.13 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. As for his pitch arsenal, Dunn throws a 4-seamer (53.6%), curveball (22.8%), slider (16.4%), and a changeup (6.2%). One thing that popped out to me when I was looking into Justin Dunn is that he walks a lot of hitters. His BB/9 sits at 6.2 and his BB% is 15.7, which ranks in the 4th percentile of all major league pitchers. When he does get it in the zone, guys mash him. His average exit velocity is 92, which is in the 2nd percentile. 

Final Analysis & Best Bet 

I’m going to ride the White Sox money line again today at -152 for 1.5 units. Dallas Keuchel will be way better off against the Mariners than he was against the Angels basically due to the difficulty of the lineup he is facing. Similar to Giolito last night, Keuchel was forced to an early exit last time out due to shaky defense behind him. So if the fellas can figure out how to field a baseball, then expect a quality start out of Keuchel this afternoon. Hitting-wise for the White Sox, they should tear up Justin Dunn. As long as they can stay patient at the plate, they’re going to get baserunners on and force the Mariners to go to the bullpen relatively early. I assume Adam Eaton will be leading off for the Sox today and he’s one of the best in the league at working a count and has no issues with taking a free pass. The Southsiders are going to get after it early and often today. And their bullpen is pretty well rested with Evan Marshall eating up two innings last night to close it out. Take the Sox to break out brooms and get the win on getaway day!

Trent’s MLB Betting Record

2021 MLB Season: 4-5 (-2.67 units). A $100 bettor has lost $266.79 this MLB szn.

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