June 14, 2021

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Patriots Day: Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: Preview, Analysis, & Best Bet – 4/19/2021

By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets

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Money Line: CWS -112 | BOS +107

Run Line: CWS -1.5 (+140) | BOS +1.5 (-160)

Total: 8 (O -115, U -105)

First Pitch: 10:10 CDT | Fenway Park | Boston, MA

Pitching Matchup: Lucas Giolito (1-0, 2.55 ERA) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (2-1, 2.08 ERA)

The White Sox look to take three out of four against the Red Sox as the rotation rolls over and Lucas Giolito takes the ball. And folks, it’s an early start in this one. Patriots’ Day and Red Sox baseball has been a tradition since 1960. The Red Sox have played at home on April 19th every year since 1960 except for one season when they had an off day and during the strike of 1995. And of course, for those that were unaware, Patriots’ Day is a holiday that celebrates some of the earliest battles in the Revolutionary War including the Battle of Lexington and Concord and the Battle of Menotomy. They were split outcomes with the Red Coats taking the Battle of Lexington and Concord and the Militia taking Menotomy and driving King George’s men back to Boston. So, here’s a huge shout out to the minutemen for their brave efforts. If it wasn’t for their courage, determination, and superior military strategy, there’s no way we’d be playing baseball at 10 in the morning 146 years later! Let’s get into this game and keep it rolling on the diamond! We’ve now cashed four straight baseball bets and we’re well above the profitability mark. 

Chicago White Sox (8-8)

Tony La Russa will opt for the ace in Lucas Giolito for the morning game as the series concludes. Lucas is a right hander out of Santa Monica, CA who is 1-0 on the season. His ERA is 2.55 with a WHIP of 0.79 and he’s coming off of an electric start last time out. It was a no decision but still a masterful outing as he went 7.0 innings of shutout baseball and allowed only three hits and a pair of walks. He struck out 8 in the effort but was technically outdueled by last year’s Cy Young, Shane Bieber as the Tribe picked up a 2-0 win in extra innings. I don’t know, neither guy picked up a decision in the game so maybe there was no “outdueling.” Regardless, Giolito is riding a nice streak and the momentum is rolling. If it wasn’t for ugly defense early on, he would definitely have at least one more quality start on the year. 

The Chicago bats were out on Sunday as they combined for eight runs over the 14 innings of play. They had a couple of opportunities early in the second game to break it open but ultimately left a couple runners on base and squandered the chances. Overall, I feel like the offense is moving in the right direction. They’re up to 11th in team batting average (.244) and are 5th in team OBP (.336). It was a slow-ish start for the Sox, but I believe things are taking a turn for the better as the season carries on. I’m very optimistic moving forward. 

Boston Red Sox (10-6)

Boston certainly didn’t enjoy Sunday as they found themselves on the losing end of the both games in the doubleheader. But they’ll look to bounce back on Patriots’ Day as Alex Cora sends Nathan Eovladi to the hill. Let me first start this off by mentioning that Nathan Eovaldi played a major role in my favorite game ever. I bring this up in conversation anytime I can fit it in. And now that I think about it, it’s the ultimate argument against Manfred’s awful “man on second” rule to start extras. It was Game 3 in the 2018 World Series and it was tied 1-1 between the Red Sox and Dodgers and heading to extras. Alex Cora used the bullpen to get through several innings before turning the ball over to Eovaldi who came in and threw 6.0 innings in extras. And albeit, Eovaldi gave up a walkoff to Max Muncy in the 18th and Boston lost 3-2, it was still a herculean effort for him to come in on short rest and out of the bullpen. With this (hopefully temporary) new rule in extras, we would be stripped of moments like that in the future. We’d be stripped of seeing managers use 46/50 men on the roster (also a great argument to keep the DH out of the N.L.). 

Okay, go ahead and hit me with the, “Sir, this is Wendys” and let’s get back to this game. 

Eovaldi is a right hander with a five pitch arsenal including a 4-seamer (43.9%), curveball (20.6%), slider (13.7%), cutter (12.6%), and a split finger (9.2%). He boasts an ERA of 2.08 and his WHIP is 0.92. This will be his fourth start of the season and he’s punched out 14 batters over 17.1 innings of work. 

Final Analysis & Best Bet

This should be a fun game that sees each club’s ace going head-to-head in the series finale. I don’t feel confident backing any of the main wagers in this game. You never bet against the Red Sox on Patriots’ Day and I wouldn’t feel confident at all fading Giolito. The total is tricky and I’d probably lean under, but once again, there’s no clear path either way on how this would play out. So I’m going to take it to the prop sheet. And I’m backing Luis Robert to obtain at least 2 hits, runs, or RBI’s (-122) for a unit. LuBob is batting third in this game behind Anderson and Eaton with Abreu and Grandal behind him so I think there will be quite a few opportunities for Robert to cash this ticket today. He’s never faced Eovaldi but I like where he’s positioned in the lineup and I feel that he’s primed for a breakout. Robert is coming off of a 2-4 performance in the second game and he’s hitting .286 on the season with 5 RBI’s. It’s not a super analytical bet, but like I said, he’s surrounded by guys that get on base and followed by guys who can mash. Let’s get it and happy Patriots’ Day!

Trent’s MLB Betting Record

2021 MLB Season: 11-7 (+1.70 units). A $100 bettor has profited $169.77 this MLB szn.

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