August 4, 2020

Lynq Sports

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: Preview & Best Bet – 7/31/20

By: Hector Duran (@hector_duran22) & Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)

Friday home games for the Cubs will be a little different when it comes to betting previews! Hector and I will be teaming up to bring you our favorite bet(s) for the game. We recently started distributing the first ever print publication in the sports betting industry (The Chicago Gambler’s Gazette – text 312-728-4434 to receive) and we want to collaborate to have an online preview for the game in case there are changes… like today. Our hard copies of the Gazette go for print at 2 P.M. on Thursdays and at that point the pitching matchup was set for Trevor Williams vs. Tyler Chatwood, now it’ll be Trevor Williams vs. Yu Darvish. The rainout in Cincy threw a wrench in our plan but we are always fighting through the adversity and still have a winner for tonight.

Money Line: CHC -200, PIT +190

Run Line: CHC -1.5 (-110), PIT +1.5 (-110)

Total: 8.5 (O -125, U +105)

First Pitch: 7:15pm CST, Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL

Anyways, here is what Hector & I are betting tonight at Wrigley: 

Trent’s Best Bet

Despite a change in pitching for the Northsiders, I’m still rolling with the Cubs on the moneyline tonight for a unit. It’s juiced 20 points higher which is unfortunate but the fact doesn’t change that this pick is a pure fade of Trevor Williams. It doesn’t matter if Craig Kimbrel was starting for Chicago, I’d still roll with ‘em. Darvish actually threw well against the Buccos in 2019 and although he didn’t earn a win, he boasted a WHIP of 0.83 against Pittsburgh. Here is how I’m backing up this pick: 

  • In three starts against the Cubs in 2019, Williams gave up 20 ER over 13.1 IP.
  • In 2019, Williams owned a 5.24 ERA on the road and a 1.41 WHIP. 

Hector’s Best Bet

For my best bet I am going to be taking the over on 8.5 runs. The Cubs bats have been impressive and they have been getting good production from all spots in the lineup. Trent had already mentioned it, but I’ll just emphasize it; Trevor Williams is not good. He struggled mightily against the Cubs in 2019 in his starts and I have a feeling we will see the same today. Runs should not be hard to come by in this one. In the past 4 games, the Pirates are scoring an average of 4.5 runs (they were shut out for one game) so as long as the Pirates fan pull their weight and score at least a couple runs, this should win. Let’s hope the wind will be blowing out at Wrigley and we get a good old fashioned slugfest so we can raise the Jolly Roger on an over of 8.5.