by Zack Lambert
September 18th, 2020
After a big Matchday 1, I’m back with the best bets for Matchday 2! We’re going to be seeing the first glimpses of both Manchester clubs as they’re debuting their season and get more from the chaotic Leeds and unpredictable Everton. There’s a lot of money to be made this week and a number of exciting matchups, so let’s dive right in to the best bets.
Everton -1 (-115): I don’t love anything from this slate but Everton taking the game by more than one seems about right. Despite Leicester getting a pair of penalties late in the game they did have another legitimate goal ruled out against West Brom so I think an impressive Everton team can do enough. Lucas Digne is one of the best left backs in the world, the front line of Richarlison, DCL, and James looks really scary, and the midfield and defense just shut Spurs down. They’ll do the same to West Brom.
Leeds Win and Over 1.5 Goals (Even): Leeds and Fulham will play the first match of the season between two promoted teams and I don’t think Fulham will be looking forward to it. Sure, Fulham will have Areola in goal and Leeds aren’t Arsenal (we think), but Leeds are coming off a serious fireworks display with Liverpool. Leeds are ready to turn up the heat and pick up their first win of the season, and this is a good way for things to kick off.
United/Crystal Palace Under 2.5, 3 (Even): I was burned last weekend by picking against Crystal Palace thanks to the hot gloves of Vicente Guaita, but that’s not going to happen this week. United are ramping up this week and even though it was a friendly, the club lost to Villa last week. It’s likely that they’ll score but they’re not going on the tear they had to beat Chelsea in their first match last season. Both teams are going to have a feeling out period before they really attack and with Palace parking the bus it’s going to be hard to block, especially without Pogba.
Arsenal 1H -0.5 (+110): Arsenal blew the socks off of Fulham to kick things off last weekend and they’ll be capping the events this Saturday. Something we’ve started to see a lot more of under Arteta is jumping on opponents early. For a few years it seemed like Arsenal were always playing from behind, but since the new skipper took over that’s changed. David Moyes and the Hammers had a dreadful transfer window to this point and went down to an underdog Newcastle to start the season so Arsenal are going to eat them up. Going into halftime with a lead should be pretty easy for the Gunners.
Spurs ML (+130): Sunday kicks off with Spurs visiting Southampton after a dreadful loss to start the season. With reinforcements seemingly on the way, the drab attitude that infested the team last season should be fleeting and the Saints are a nice target. Their win last week should do little to convince the experienced Spurs players they can’t win the match. The London club are more talented in every position and should take the win.
Newcastle ML (+170): This is probably one of the closest games of the weekend as both teams finished near each other and we don’t have the most accurate representation of what the teams really look like, but the Newcastle pickups have me really excited. They seem to be in really good shape on the attack with Callum Wilson and the depth is really nice. Jeff Hendrick put some nice touches on the game last week and Brighton were just blasted by Chelsea. There was some poor defending and despite having some nice chances in the match I actually think Newcastle will be more effective defensively. Newcastle will move to six points of six.
Chelsea/Liverpool Over 3 (+105): I don’t know if anyone remembers one of the most exciting matches of the restart, but the last time Chelsea and Liverpool met they scored five goals. Let’s look at what’s changed from that match. Chelsea’s attack got better. Great! So more than eight? Let’s not get carried away, but I’m surprised this number isn’t set at 3.5 at least. Chelsea scored three in their opener and Liverpool’s match had seven goals. I don’t know about you, but I’m pounding the over and enjoying the fireworks.
Leicester Win 1-0, 2-0, or 2-1 (+185): It’s a bit annoying how well the books and I are aligned on our opinions this weekend and the Leicester/Burnley match is no exception. Neither the spread or the total are profitable and they’re both pretty risky. You can make money on a Burnley or draw moneyline, but those are unlikely. Even the sliding scales and first half numbers weren’t paying well, but I think the correct group score could earn us some money this week. Burnley are a good club with a lot of talented guys, especially Dwight McNeil, but Leicester just smashed West Brom and will be looking to move to six points. They’ll get there with one of those scores.
Aston VIlla/Sheffield Draw ML (+215): Wolves gave the business to Sheffield in their opening match to the tune of 2-0 and there weren’t very many moments where Sheffield felt close to breaking through. Last season Sheffield’s claim to fame was their defense, giving up only 39 goals on the season. The attack was stagnant a lot of the time and didn’t provide much help. But it was tough to score on them, and Villa didn’t find many goals. This is stacking up to be a very low scoring event and either 1-1 or 0-0 in my eyes.
Wolves/City Over 2.5, 3 (-115): We’re getting our first looks at City this coming Monday and while we don’t know the exact team they’ll field, we know it’s going to be good. However, one of the biggest issues with City recently is that they’re allowing a lot of goals and they’re very volatile. One day they beat Arsenal 3-0 and two weeks later they lose by the same score. They do have some players out but they’re still goal machines. As for Wolves, it’s probable that Jota is out due to his Liverpool transfer talks, but they have some serious scoring potential too. Jiménez is thought to be the best striker outside of the Top 6 by some and there’s a lot of moving parts to make that offense hum. Their last match was a 3-2 draw and I expect something like that again this week.
@bigbird8224 is 5-3 on the season and a 100 unit bettor is up $611.10.