By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)
We’re heading out to La Liga for our best bet of the day as we’re looking to continue our 3-0 heater since soccer resumed a few weeks back! It’ll be 2nd place Real Madrid playing host to 18th place Mallorca who is looking to stay out of the relegation zone in their first season in the top league in Spain.
Money Line: RMCF -650, MAL +1200, Draw +700
Spread: RMCF -2, -2.5 (+104)
Total: 3.5 (O +100, U -120)
Kickoff: Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid, ESP
Through 30 matches, Real Madrid has 65 points and sits in second place behind only Barcelona, who has 68 points in 31 matches. A win on Wednesday afternoon will tie the two elite clubs atop La Liga and it’s going to be a barnburner down the stretch. As a team, Real Madrid has fired the most shots in the Spanish league (385) and sits second in goals for (57) and assists (43).
As for individual efforts, Zidine Zidane’s side is led by the Frenchman, Karim Benzema, who has notched 17 goals, added six assists, and gone three for three from the penalty spot. There’s quite a dropoff after Benzema though, as the next highest goal scorers are Sergio Ramos with seven goals/zero assists and Toni Kroos with four tallies and five helpers. On the backend, it’s the Belgiun, Thibaut Courtois who will likely get the start in net. Courtois allows just .67 goals per 90 minutes and has racked up 13 clean sheets in La Liga play. It also helps that his backline is reinforced by Ramos, Varane, and Carvajal!
Let’s start out with a fun fact about Mallorca: Did you know that Steve Nash, NBA Hall of Famer is part owner of Mallorca? Back in 2016, Robert Sarver, the owner of the Phoenix Suns and his investment group, which includes Nash, bought the team for about $23 million. First off, I feel like that is an extremely cheap price tag for a professional sports team. Secondly, if Sarver owns and operates the team, no wonder they’re about to be relegated.
Mallorca has accumulated a 7-5-18 record so far in their first season back to the top Spanish soccer league. They’ve managed to score just 29 goals this season, which is good enough for 16th in La Liga but they are 3rd in saves (102). Manolo Reina does the goalkeeping for Mallorca and has 99 saves with an average of 1.62 goals per 90 minutes to go with four clean sheets. Up front it’s Ante Budimir, the Croation who leads the squad with nine goals.
Final Analysis & Best Bet
I think the oddsmakers were basically spot on with this line although I wouldn’t mind sacrificing the +104 payout to get this down to and even “-2 (-120).” But, I do believe that Real Madrid gets the job done here and I think they cruise to a victory. Unfortunately for Mallorca, I don’t see them scoring in this matchup. This isn’t breaking news what I’m about to say… Real Madrid is a top football club across all of Europe. Their back line and Courtois should be able to get the clean sheet on Wednesday afternoon at home. I just think it’s a question of how many goals they score. I think they get three for sure and potentially a fourth. They’ll likely win the possession battle about 68% to 32% and with all of that pressure, they’re bound to break through at multiple points. Not to mention, the motivation factor to tie up Barca atop La Liga, they’ll come out aggressive early and look to make a statement against the visitors. Take Real Madrid on the positive payout (+104) to cover the -2, -2.5 spread. This play comes from the system that I’ve been testing over the last week which amassed a 12-7 record and picked up 3.052 units! This was the first week I tested the model and I am very excited by the results. I’ll continue to post the results in my previews and hopefully we continue to be profitable!
Trent’s Soccer Betting Record in 2020
3-0 (+2.317 units). A $100 bettor is up $231.70 in 2020.
For more sports talk, follow me on Twitter: @trentbets