October 25, 2020

Lynq Sports

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Road to the Kentucky Derby: San Felipe, Gotham, & Tampa Bay Derby Previews

San Felipe Stakes G-2;  Santa Anita Race 8:

Distance/Surface: 8.5 Furlongs Dirt

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite:):

  1. Fort Mchenry 20-1
  2. Honor A. P. 4-1
  3. Wrecking Crew 12-1
  4. **Authentic 6-5
  5. Thousand Words 9-5
  6. Storm The Court 5-1
  7. Swagsational 50-1

Pace Scenario/Initial Thoughts: This is a small field, but a competitive one. The pace will be moderate in this one with Storm the Court and Wrecking Crew being your likely pace setters. Authentic and Thousand Words will stalk right behind the leaders. I expect Honor AP to sit back a little bit and then close at the end.

Horses I like:

  • Authentic: This horse might be a beast! I have him as my 2nd rated Kentucky Derby prospect and after this race, he’ll probably be the derby favorite. He won the Sham last out by an outstanding 7 ¾ lengths despite looking very green down the lane. If this horse keeps maturing no one will stop him. He’s working out lights out shooting a bullet 6 furlong work on March 2nd. Draden Van Dyke keeps the mount which is a great sign. There are so many reasons to like this horse that Bob Baffert as the trainer is the cherry on top. He’s 28% off a 2 month layoff and 32% when the horse is coming off a winning race. He’s the very deserving favorite here!
  • Honor A.P: This horse is a bit of an unknown. He has not been seen since last October out at Santa Anita. But wow he was ultra impressive in that race. He ran a huge speed figure winning by 5 ¼ lengths. Hall of fame jockey, Mike Smith gets the mount and trainerJohn Sherriff wins 22% of his graded stakes. This is the only horse I could see upsetting Authentic. Honor A.P’s breeding is better suited for longer distances than Authentic.

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • Fort McHenry: This is such a silly placement by Doug O’Neill. It makes no sense to me. This horse was so hyped coming into his debut since he was a $1.1 Million purchase in the September keenland sale. Since then he’s been a huge disappointment. He’s only won 1 race in a 5 race career, and his speed figures are weak. In his last race he ran 3rd in a 50k optional claimer. Now they place him in a super strong G-2 stakes race?! It’s a joke of an entry. He’ll be lucky to hit the board.
  • Swagsational: This horse wont come within 30 lengths of the winner. His first race this year was a 10,000 Maiden Claimer. He has shown improvement this year, but it has been against much weaker horses. He will go off at over 100-1.
  • Storm the Court: He has fallen off form since his 2 year old campaign. His 5-1 morning line is silly, as he will go off closer to 12-1. Flavien Pratt jumps off for Thousand words. The BC Juvinille has come back horribly as almost every runner in that race has come back poorly in their 3 year old seasons.  Nothing to see here.
  • Thousand Words. This horse has done nothing wrong to start his career going 3-0. For the price, I just don’t think he is as talented as my top 2 picks. His speed figures dropped in his 3 year old debut. I want to take horses that are improving, not the other way around. He’s 9-5 on the Morning Line, but I suspect he will go off at higher odds.

Top Pick:

I usually try to beat the favorite in big races like these, but I’m not going to overthink this one. This is not a weak field. Despite that, I think Authentic will blow the doors off these horses. I am a little nervous that Honor A.P. could upset, but I’m going to take a stand on this favorite. Single Authentic on all your tickets! He is that good.

Gotham Stakes G-3;  Aquaduct Race 10:

Distance/Surface: 9 Furlongs Dirt

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite:):

  1. Celtic Striker 30-1
  2. Informative 15-1
  3. War Stopper 5-1
  4. Attachment Rate 9-2
  5. Necker Island 12-1
  6. **Mischevious Alex 3-1
  7. Sixto 8-1
  8. Montauk Traffic 6-1
  9. Flap Jack 30-1
  10. Untitled 4-1
  11. First Deputy 30-1

Pace Scenario/Initial Thoughts: You’re 2 favorites Untitled and Mischevious Alex will both try to get the early lead. Outside of those two, there is not a ton of pace in the race. The rest of the field will likely herd together with War Stopper and Attachment Rate fighting to be the best closer.

Horses I like:

  • Mischevious Alex: If we get 3-1 on this horse, it will be a steal! He had humble beginnings as a $45k Maiden winner at Parx. However, he has turned a corner with 2 spectacular races. In his last 2 races, he has won by a combined 17 lengths! Last out he beat second favorite Untitled by 7 lengths! He clearly came out of his last race healthy seeing that he fired a bullet workout on February 25th. This horse is ready to fire, and the mile distance will be perfect for him.
  • Attachment Rate: Dale Romans is a brutal trainer to bet on, but I don’t mind betting on him when he’s not the favorite. This horse also might get a great pace setup if M. Alex and Untitled get into an early speed duel. Attatchement Rate has a great closing kick and I love the improvement he has shown from age 2 to 3. His speed figure has jumped in each race he’s run and I expect him to keep improving here. Luis Saez took the mount when Attachment Rate broke his maiden and he stays on here! Great sign and has a legitimate shot to upset the favorite.

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • War Stopper: This is actually a horse I like moving forward, but in this particular spot, I think there are horses simply better than him. He showed a clear improvement as a 3 year old, but it is tough to tell how strong his maiden field was. Also he had an easy lead when breaking his maiden, and he certainly won’t have an easy lead in this race. I’m going to let him beat me.
  • Untitled: He lost to Mischevious  Alex by 7 lengths the last time they squared up. Has he improved 7 lengths since that last start? While he’s improved, I don’t think its nearly enough to win this race. This will be his 4th different jockey in 4 starts…. I’ll let him beat me as well.

Top Pick:

At the current odds, Mischievous Alex is my top pick! I would bet him all the way down to 8-5. However, if he goes off lower than that, I am going to take a shot on Attachment Rate at a better price!

Tampa Bay Derby G-2; Tampa Bay Downs Race 11 :

Distance/Surface: 9 Furlongs Dirt

Full Field with Morning Lines (**Favorite:):

  1. Texas Swing 12-1
  2. Spa City 10-1
  3. Relentless Dancer 12-1
  4. Chance It 5-2
  5. Market Analysis: 8-1
  6. Mo Mosa 30-1
  7. **Sole Volante 2-1
  8. Letmeno 12-1
  9. Unrighteous 20-1
  10.  Bye Bey Melvin 20-1
  11.  King Guillermo 15-1
  12. Tons of Gold 30-1

Pace Scenario/Initial Thoughts: Sole Volante might get the perfect setup again as there is plenty of speed in front of him to close into. Chance it, Market Analysis, and Relentless Dancer will all fight for the lead. I expect Spa City and Sole Volante to rate behind those 3. I don’t think there is a good enough deep closer in the race to have to worry about.

Horses I like:

  • Market Analysis: This horse’s debut was not perfect, and yet he still broke his maiden at Gulfstream park going 7 furlongs. That is a tough distance first out and he still beat a decent field. He was a $250,000 purchase so connections certainly thought highly of this guy. I also love that hall of fame jockey Velazquez takes the mount. It is rare for him to choose a mount on a maiden winner in a stakes race. I think the word is out on Market Analysis that he is the real deal. Just for grins, he fired a bullet workout on February 29th. He’s ready to fire.
  • Spa City: This horse keeps improving after every race. In fact,  he had the highest last out speed rating in this field. He clearly made a big jump from 2 to 3 when he broke his maiden last out. Now his trainer, who is a 21% shipper, brings him to Tampa right after a bullet workout. I think Spa City has just as good of a chance to win as the 2 favorites and I’m getting 5x the odds! Sign me up for this improving colt!

Horses I’m Playing against:

  • Sole Volante: I will not be disappointed if I lose to this horse Sole Volante had a very impressive win last out, but it was with a very favorable pace setup. I’m also surprised he’s the 2-1 favorite here. If he floats up in price, he’s worth a look, but at anything lower than 4-1 I am trying to beat. Keep in mind, Sole is a gelding which is incredibly rare for a horse on the derby trail. If they thought this was a derby horse early on, they would not have gelded the poor guy.
  • Chance It: I couldn’t believe Saffie Josheph didn’t have the balls to run this horse last weekend. He scratched chance it out of the Fountain of Youth stakes, because he didn’t like his post draw…. First of all, if you don’t think your horse is good enough to overcome a slightly unfavorable post draw in a weak FOY field, then you have absolutely no chance to win the Derby! This horse will be your post time favorite and I’m trying to beat. This is actually a stronger field than what he just scratched out of. Also please stop drugging your horses Saffie. Thank you.

Top Pick:

My top pick for the race is Market Analysis. Unfortunately, I don’t think we will be lucky enough to get 8-1 on him, this colt is prime for improvement off his last start. Pletcher is always dangerous in these derby preps and I think he’s got this horse ready to fire.