August 4, 2020

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San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants: Preview, Prediction & Best Bet-7/29/2020

By Drew Modjeski 

These early divisional games are going to be huge at the end of the season. With each game carrying the weight that it does, it is tough if a team drops a series at home it has big repercussions for the rest of the year. The Giants are trying to stop that from happening against the Padres tonight, but it is easier said than done. 

Money Line- San Diego Padres -186, San Francisco Giants +155

Run Line- San Diego Padres -1.5 (-108), San Francisco Giants +1.5 (-110) 

Total- 8 (O-104, U-115) 

First Pitch- 8:45 p.m. CST. Oracle Park, San Francisco, California 

San Diego Padres 

Padres have their ace going on the mound tonight as they look for their sixth win in seven games. Chris Paddack was lights out in the Padres opening day win against the Diamondbacks as he went six shutout innings while letting up only four hits. He also gets to face off against a Giants team that has not hit right-handers that well this year. Paddack is poised to have another stellar start to his seasons. 

There is room for improvement with the Padres bats this season. Manny Machado is having a rough time at the plate as he is slashing .167/.283/.333 with an OPS of .619. Not the production they were expecting from someone they paid all that money too. Eric Hosmer has a good stat-line for early in the season, but out of his five hits and seven RBI’s, four hits and six RBI’s came in the first game. The offense has been still rolling on as they have scored at least five runs in all of their wins, and three runs in their loss. The pitching has been good enough to make up for the offense not putting up huge numbers. 

San Francisco Giants 

Two wins for the Giants is a lot more than I thought they would have at this point. After dropping the first two games of the season, The Giants came back to split their first series against the Dodgers in LA. Those are not easy games to win, so the Giants are not going to be taken lightly anymore. 

However, it is going to be tough for them to get a win tonight against the Padres. The first reason why is because they don’t hit right-handers well and they’re facing Chris Paddack. Secondly, is because of their pitching. Johnny Cueto gets the start tonight, and while he wasn’t terrible in the opening game only letting up one earned run, the problem is that he doesn’t have the stuff right now to pitch later in the game. He only lasted four innings last time out, and in tonight’s game he will probably last a similar amount of time. This in-turn puts a lot of pressure on the Giants bullpen which is not what they want. In Cueto’s last start, after he went out of the game the bullpen proceeded to give up seven earned runs. The Giants need their starters to go longer, and I don’t see that happening in this game. 

Analysis and Prediction 

The Padres are playing a lot better than I thought they would have so far in that season, and I am going to be sticking with them tonight. Chris Paddack is going to be too much for the Giants hitters, and the Padres will only have to put up around five runs to win. Now for the best bet, I am liking the Padres on the run line 1.5 at -108. I know -108 is not the best value for risking it on the run line, but the Padres should win this one by four or more runs. By betting the run line we get the better value for the win compared to betting the money line that is just too high. 

Drew’s 2020 MLB Record: 2-1

For more sports talk, follow me on Twitter @drew_modjeski