SNB: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Analysis & Best Bets – 5/2/2021

By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets) Austin Moehn (@austin_moehn22)

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Money Line: NYM +104 | PHI -112

Run Line: NYM +1.5 (-198) | PHI -1.5 (+166)

Total: 9 (O -105, U -112)

First Pitch: 6:08 CDT | Citizens Bank Park | Philadelphia, PA

Pitching Matchup: David Peterson (1-3, 5.59 ERA) vs. Zach Eflin (1-1, 3.58 ERA)

Sunday Night Baseball from the City of Brotherly Love and it’s a rubber match! And although it isn’t a top of the rotation marquee pitching matchup, we should be in for a good one as David Peterson faces the fightin’ Phils for the third time already this season. Here’s our breakdown of tonight’s action and where we’ll be laying out cash!

Trent’s Analysis & Best Bet

The two starts that David Peterson has made against Philadelphia this season have yielded completely different results. He pitched on 4/7 against the Philly and was tagged for six earned runs over 4.0 IP but he bounced back the next week (4/14) as he picked up a quality start. He went 6.0 IP of 3-hit, 1-run baseball and the Metropolitans picked up the win in a 5-1 effort. 

On the flip side, Zach Eflin hasn’t yet faced the Mets this season but he’s made 11 career starts against them. He’s 3-4 over those starts with an ERA of 5.21 and the current Mets roster slashes .222/.272/.400 against the right-handed vet. 

For me, I’m going to lock in a pair of bets for this one. First, I’m going back to my philosophy that the sticks always come out on Sunday night. I’m taking the over 9 (-105) for a unit. There’s a ton of star power in this game and the boys thrive for SNB. The Phillies punished Davidson the first time he pitched at Citizens Bank, hanging a six spot on them. Although it’s only two starts, Peterson’s splits haven’t been great on the road as his ERA inflates to 11.05 when away from Citi Field. That leads me to my second best bet which is the Phillies on a pretty cheap money line at -112. I’ll take a unit on that as well. Like I said, it’s a short sample size but with a guy who is only 25 and in his second season, the home/road splits carry a little more weight, in my humble opinion. The Phillies will likely get J.T Realmuto and Bryce Harper back tonight as well so I think we’re in good shape. Let’s hope we get a #BryceBomb and close out the weekend with a pair of winners. 

The Picks: Over 9 (-105), Phillies ML (-112)

-Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)

Trent’s MLB Betting Record

2021 MLB Season: 14-14 (-3.58 units). A $100 bettor is down $357.91 this MLB szn.

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Austin’s Analysis & Best Bet

We got another fun matchup taking place on Sunday Night Baseball as the Phillies and Mets are looking to climb up the standings in the NL East. The Phillies will mostly get back at least one of their productive offensive pressences with Bryce Harper, Jean Segura, and JT Realmuto all possibly being in the lineup for tonight as Philly looks to solidify themselves as the top team in the east. The Mets are coming into this one on a cold streak with the sticks as they have scored 12 runs in their last six with five of those runs coming yesterday. All this being said, I agree with Trent that this will be a higher scoring game. Peterson has been inconsistent throughout his career and based on how the Phillies got to him at Citizens Bank Park the first time, I’m liking the Phillies to put up runs in this one.

My Best Bet here is Philadelphia -1.5 (+166). Zach Eflin has decent numbers against the current Mets roster with Michael Conforto being the only one who has had success against him. I’m thinking Eflin will be able to get a quality start in this spot as the entire Mets offense hasn’t performed well at all this season with their team average being at .232 and a slugging of .352. My only concern might be the Phillies bullpen allowing this game to get close late, but with the Phillies offense being at almost full strength, they will be able to score in this spot. With this being a strong possibility, the bullpen might be able to have a comfortable lead to play with and not need to shutdown the Mets in the later innings. I like Philadelphia to cover the spread on Sunday Night Baseball.      

The Pick: Philadelphia to cover the -1.5 spread at (+166) 

Austin’s MLB 2021 picks 8-3 (+$435 on $100 bets) 

-Austin Moehn (@austin_moehn22)

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