SNB: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers – Analysis & Best Bets – 4/25/2021

By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets) Austin Moehn (@austin_moehn22)

Money Line: SD +108 | LAD -116

Run Line: SD +1.5 (-198) | LAD -1.5 (+166)

Total: 7 (O -118, U +100)

First Pitch: 7:00 ET | Dodger Stadium | Los Angeles, CA

Austin’s Analysis & Best Bet

The Dodgers will look to get the series split against the divisional rival Padres in this four game set. For as talented as Los Angeles’s lineup is, the past week they have struggled to score runs hitting the five run mark only once in their last seven games. The Dodgers will be facing one of San Diego’s top pitchers in Joe Musgrove who will look to close out the series for the friars as they try to get the 3-1 series win. Much like Los Angeles, San Diego’s offense is full of talent but as a team they haven’t settled in yet this season. It is Sunday Night Baseball though and the stars always shine on ESPN, so the offensive struggles for both teams might be on hold for tonight. This season series has been a fun one to watch so far and I’m excited to see how this one plays out on Sunday Night Baseball. 

The Dodgers are going to send out Dustin May for his fourth start of the season. The 23 year-old has pitched fairly well this year with a 2.93 ERA and a 12.9 K/9. For my best bet, I’m heading to the prop sheet and taking the over 5.5 strikeouts (-114) for Dustin May. I’m liking this matchup for May because the Padres are one of the more strikeout prone teams in the National League ranking third most behind the Brewers and Cubs. So far this season, May has had at least six strikeouts in each start and he’s been able to hit that six strikeout mark even when he’s struggled to work his way deep into games. I’m expecting May to give up a run or two but due to his high velocity and elite level movement on his pitches, I think he will be able to get to at least six strikeouts before Dave Roberts pulls him.      

The Pick: Dustin May over 5.5 strikeouts (-114) 

Austin’s MLB 2021 picks 7-3 (+$349 on $100 bets) 

-Austin Moehn (@austin_moehn22)  

Trent’s Analysis & Best Bet

Sunday Night Baseball! Let’s close out the weekend with a winner. I’m big on the philosophy that the sticks always show up on SNB so I’m going to lock in the over. I think it’s a good, safe number at 7. And honestly, I kind of expected it to be up around 7.5 or maybe even 8. The philosophy with this play basically boils down to having the push to fall back on if they don’t eclipse 7 runs. 

As for the numbers, they’re there to support this bet. The Dodgers have the first ranked wOBA against RHP (.361) and that’s what they’re getting tonight in Joe Musgrove. On the flip side, the Friars rank 15th in that category (.305) and the two squads have posted BABIP’s of .319 (3rd) and .282 (16th), respectively. As for head to head stats, Slam Diego slashes .246/.305/.446 against Dustin May and Los Angeles slashes .210/.223/.253 against Joe Musgrove. Those aren’t overwhelming  numbers but there is just too much damn talent in this game to justify a total of 7. Take the over. Let’s get some runs. The stars will be out on national television. 

The Pick: Over 7 (-118)

-Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *