SNB: St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: Analysis & Best Bets – 5/16/2021

By: Austin Moehn (@austin_moehn22) & Trent Pruitt (@trentbets

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Money Line: STL +114 | SD -116

Run Line: STL +1.5 (-190) | SD -1.5 (+165)

Total: 7 (O -109, U -109)

First Pitch: 7:08 ET | Petco Park | San Diego, CA

Pitching Matchup: Kwang Hyun Kim (1-0, 2.74 ERA) vs. Ryan Weathers (2-1, 0.81 ERA)

The COVID-stricken Padres look for the sweep tonight against the visiting Cardinals on Sunday Night Baseball. It’s a battle of lefties with St. Louis sends 32-year-old Kwang Hyun Kim to the bump while San Diego counters with Ryan Weathers. Let’s dive into our best bets and where Austin and I will be laying our cash tonight! 

Trent’s Analysis & Best Bet

I’m backing the Cardinals tonight on the money line (+114) for 1.5 units. For starters, the Padres are down several of their big time players with the Rona. Sure, they’ve proven that they can win without those guys, but I still wouldn’t feel comfortable backing a team without Tatis, Hosmer, Myers, and Profar. Additionally, the Friars are sending Ryan Weathers to the bump. His last start only lasted 1.0 IP before he was removed with arm soreness. He bounced back throwing 6.0 innings in relief over two outings since the late-April injury, but he won’t be going too deep into this game. And for the biggest stat of them all, the Cards are the number two ranked team against LHP this season with a wOBA of .355, trailing only my beloved White Sox (.369). The Padres rank 23rd in that category at .292 and like I said, they’ll be without their big guns tonight. I’ll take a shot on the plus money payout tonight and say the Cardinals jump on Weathers early considering he’ll probably only go 1-2 times through the order. 

X-Factor: This is the first time that Kwang Hyun Kim is making a start in the majors on the west coast. It’s a prime time game so he’ll be amped up to put on a show with his home country of South Korea watching diligently. 

The Pick: Cardinals money line (+114)

-Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)

Trent’s MLB Betting Record

2021 MLB Season: 19-18 (-3.73 units). A $100 bettor is down $373.05 this MLB szn.

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Austin’s Analysis & Best Bet

As Trent pointed out, the Padres are without five of their starters due to Covid, and I agree that this will be a factor in how this game plays out. Yes, San Diego has been able to win without Hosmer, Tatis, and Profar, but I think that this run will end tonight. My best bet is St. Louis covering the -0.5 (+135) in the first five innings. St. Louis has many advantages here, including starting pitching with Kawng-Hyun Kim getting the ball tonight. Kim is one of the better pitchers that doesn’t get talked about enough as he’s had 13 career appearances and still holds a loss-free record. Without their top bats, San Diego needs 21-year old Ryan Wheaters to turn out his best start which will be extremely difficult to do against St. Louis’s lineup. 

Nolan Arenado and Tyler O’Neil have been swinging the bat well recently, and with Wheaters being a lefty, this should favor the Cards, who typically deploy a heavily right-handed batting lineup. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado have had great success throughout their careers facing left handed pitching, with both batting around .320 with a slugging of .600 while facing southpaws. Wheaters has been used as a reliever for most of the year, and they are probably are going to pull him out early, but this might be the Padres’ downfall as the bullpen has been used heavily in this series, and the Friars are going to be without one of their top arms in Drew Pomeranz. With all this being said, I like the Cardinals to come away with this one on SNB.

The Pick: St. Louis covering -0.5 (+135) through the first 5 innings

Austin’s MLB 2021 picks 10-4 (+$490 on $100 bets)

-Austin Moehn (@austin_moehn22)

Hector’s Analysis & Best Bet

We know the Padres are shorthanded and they will be going up against Kwang Hyun Kim who has been serviceable this season.  The southpaw did show some upside to him last season in a few starts and it has carried over nicely so far this season where he is 1-0 with a 2.74 ERA. Since the Padres will be missing some key players, I expect a lot of strikeouts in this one. In his 5 starts this season, he has amassed at least 4 strikeouts in all but one start.  Like Trent said earlier, the Cardinals mash against lefties so the offense should be able to give Kim plenty of run support to keep him in the ballgame long enough to eat up some strikeouts.

The Pick: Kwang Hyun Kim to record at least 4 strikeouts & the Cardinals to win (+108)

-Hector Duran (@hector_duran22)

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