December 2, 2020

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St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs; Preview and Best Bet – 9/6/2020

By: Hector Duran & Trent Pruitt

9/6/20

The Sunday Night Baseball Crew makes their way into the Friendly Confines as the nation gears up for Labor Day! The rare five-game series is set to expire tomorrow afternoon as the Cardinals enter tonight’s game with a 2-1 lead and 2.5 games back of Chicago in the standings. This is September baseball, this is what we all look forward to. The N.L. Central sees the top four ball clubs all within five games of the division-leading Cubbies. Let’s get into the nitty gritty and see what the boys’ best bets are for tonight’s game! 

Moneyline: STL (-110); CHC (-110)

Spread: STL -1.5 (+140); CHC +1.5 (-160)

Total: 12.5; Over (-115); Under (-105)

First Pitch: 6:08pm CST, Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL

Hector’s Analysis & Best Bet

Dakota Hudson of the Cardinals is coming off of his best start of the season where he went 7 innings and gave up 1 run.  He will face a Cubs lineup that has struggled to string some runs together.  The only guys who are able to put the bat to the ball at the moment are Ian Happ and Willson Contreras.  The veteran Jon Lester will get the ball for the Cubs and he was bounced around in his last start which was in Pittsburgh where he failed to go 6 innings and gave up 5 runs.  I think we will see a better version of Lester tonight being that this is a rivalry game and also televised on ESPN.  When I saw this total of 12.5 runs, my mind instantly went to bet the under.  Unless this game is at Coors Field, I do not think I have seen a game with that high of a total.  This will be game four of the series and the first three games saw a combined 17 runs! I really do not see why 12.5 runs is the line that was set but I will be taking the under 12.5 runs here.  It has been a gloomy and wet day in the Chi and that really does not play well for runs.  *I double checked the forecast and it shows that the wind will be howling out at a breezy 15-20mph at gametime*.  I will still take the under.  Hudson is coming off of his best start and faces a Cubs team that does not have much experience against him so I will give him the upper hand to have a decent game tonight.  With Lester, he is a veteran and knows how to spot his pitches when he can.  I think he makes the adjustments needed tonight and pitches to weak contact which will not yield a lot of runs. 

Trent’s Analysis & Best Bet

I’m going to the prop sheet for my best bet on the night. I’m taking Paul Goldschmidt to have over 3 hits, runs, and RBI’s (+117) tonight for a unit. For starters, Hector mentioned that the wind will be howling out to left-center. There’s a strong possibility that Paul can cash this ticket with one swing of the bat, as he’s gone deep at Wrigley five times in his career over 40 games. In those 40 contests at Wrigley, he’s slashed .305/.414/.482 with 22 RBI’s. As for head-to-head numbers, he’s 8-17 against lefty Jon Lester in his career with a longball. Let’s tell it like it is, Lester has been far from brilliant this season with a 5.06 FIP, the second highest of his career (5.24 in 2007). This should be a fun bet with great potential to hit, so sit back and enjoy tonight!

For more sports talk, follow me on Twitter: @trentbets