By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)
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Money Line: STL +148 | CWS -155
Run Line: STL +1.5 (-140) | CWS -1.5 (+124)
Total: 8 (O -115, U +100)
First Pitch: 7:10 CDT | Guaranteed Rate Field | Chicago, IL
Pitching Matchup: Kwang Hyun Kim (1-1, 2.73 ERA) vs. Lance Lynn (4-1, 1.55 ERA)
It was not a fun weekend for the Chicago White Sox as they were swept out of New York by the Yankees in a three-game set. The Cards dropped two of three to the Cubs over the weekend, including a game last night in which they went 0-10 with RISP in a 2-1 extra inning loss. Let’s get into each team and lock in a couple of bets for tonight!
St. Louis Cardinals (26-20)
It’ll be the lefty out of South Korea going for the Cards in the series opener on Monday night. Kwang Hyun Kim is 1-1 on the season with a 2.73 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. This will be his first start since his losing effort on Sunday Night Baseball last weekend to the Padres in a 5-3 game. He was fine in that game and it really wasn’t his fault that the team lost. He only went 3.1 innings and allowed four runs, but only one was earned. As for Kim’s pitch arsenal, he relies on a 4-seamer at a 43.9% rate and mixes in a slider (36.4%), changeup (10%), and an occasional curveball (9.7%). He’s a soft throwing lefty whose fastball averages 89 mph and gives up a relatively high rate of barrel percentage (11.5%). His xERA is 4.56 which is almost two runs more than his normal ERA so some would say he’s “lucky” with how he’s fared this season.
St. Louis’ bats aren’t too threatening as they’re 18th in batting average (.234) and runs scored (199), 19th in OBP (.307), and 16th in slugging (.395%). The guys you have to watch out for are Paul Goldschmidt who slashes .247/.298/.404 and Nolan Arenado whose .291/.344/.547. They’ve combined for 16 longballs during the 2021 campaign.
Chicago White Sox (26-19)
Tony La Russa will turn to Lance Lynn as both men gear up to face their former team. The duo won the 2011 World Series together back in St. Louis, so there’s a bit of history here. Lance has been awesome this season, posting a WHIP of 0.98 to go along with 46 punchouts over 40.2 innings of work. Last time out he faced the Twins and limited them to two earned runs over 6.0 innings and only struck out two. The aforementioned Goldy and Arenado are just a combined 6-34 against big Lance but they’ve each hit a homer off of him.
The bats were nowhere to be found over the weekend. Chicago put up 5 runs over three games which certainly isn’t going to do it against a club like the Yankees. But people will still blame TLR for the sweep lol. Regardless of who’s at fault for the shitty weekend, the Sox batting stats took a dip. They’re still fourth in batting average (.255) and second in OBP (.341) but their slugging percentage is now down to 11th (.406) and their total runs scored is now at 227 which ranks seventh. Chicago has now scored just seven runs over their last four contests so maybe they’re finally starting to feel the missing Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert.
Final Analysis & Best Bet
If anyone is going to turn this team around, it’s going to be Lance Lynn. I feel like I’ve gone “full homer” with my consistency of betting on the Sox, but I’m going back to the well. And for fuck’s sake, every time I bet on them, they lose. Give me the White Sox tonight at -155 for two units. We still have one thing going for us in that Chicago has that insane stat where they dominate left-handed starters. They lost on Friday night to a lefty in Jordan Montgomery but Chicago’s still the number one team against LHP with a wOBA of .363. That’s .019 points better than the next closest team which is the Cardinals. Kim’s a middle of the road strikeout guy (48th percentile in K%) so look for the Sox to put their .352 BABIP against lefties to use tonight. On the flip side, St. Louis is 22nd against RHP with a wOBA of .297 and they’re 25th in BABIP (.269).
I’m also going to take the under 8 (+100) for two units tonight. St. Louis loves to rely on their pitching and play in 2-1 games so with the form that each team’s offenses are in, we should be in for a low scoring contest. Lance Lynn’s going to deal tonight. MASS = GAS.
Trent’s MLB Betting Record
2021 MLB Season: 21-23-1 (-8.83 units). A $100 bettor is down $882.60 this MLB szn.