By: NFL Content Staff
The Chiefs look to repeat as Super Bowl Champions on Sunday afternoon but they’ll have to go through the number one run defense and a Buccaneers team that has a ton of offensive talent. It’s Andy Reid vs. Bruce Arians. Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady. It’s Super Bowl Sunday!
Our staff breaks down their top bets for the big game featuring a play on a side, a team total, and six prop bets! Let’s run up the profits on Sunday!
Spread: Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
Money Line: KC (-165) | TB (+145)
Total: 56.5 (O -110, U -110)
Kickoff: 6:30 PM ET | Raymond James Stadium | Tampa, FL
Weather: 70 Degrees | 70% Chance of Rain in the Afternoon | 10-15 MPH Winds
Logan’s Best Bet on the Side
The line is between 3 and 3.5 in most places, and I am taking the Buccaneers +3.5 if i can get it. The Chiefs are too good on offense for this to be a slog, but Tampa Bay has the pass rush to give KC major problems, especially considering that they are missing both of their starting tackles on the offensive line. If anything, the Bucs defensive front might be underrated: They are one of only 7 teams in the last 15 seasons to enter the Super Bowl with 55 sacks or more: 5 of the previous 6 went home with the Lombardi.
The red zone will be key: KC has found their footing near the goal line as of late (they were 5-6 for touchdowns against Buffalo in the AFC Championship Game), but they were middling in the regular season (12th in the NFL). If the Bucs can bend but not break on defense, like they did 3 times in their meeting in the regular season, they will have their chances. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs are dead last in red zone TD% allowed. Look for Brady and co. to cash in; if they can get 6s and make Kansas City take 3s, this will be their kind of game.
Eventually, the Chiefs’ habit of spotting teams 10 points in the first half is going to catch up with them, especially against a quarterback that has the ability to turn into a flamethrower down the stretch. I will take the points and the home team here.
–Logan Sella (@logansella)
Trent’s Best Bet on a Total
Getting right into it, I’m taking the over on 27 Buccaneer points (-120) for a unit on Sunday. Initially I was thinking that Tampa’s best chance to win the Lombardi was to slow play this game, establish the run, and keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes hands. I still think that. However, Bruce Arians isn’t exactly “Mr. Conservative” when it comes to play calling. The Bucs have the second best passing attack in the NFL and the third lowest sack percentage in the league at 3.39%. Keeping Tom Brady upright and not putting themselves in third and long situations will be critical. Additionally, Tampa Bay scores touchdowns on 68.9% of their trips to the red zone which ranks seventh and they’ll face off against the 32nd ranked red zone defense in Kansas City. There will be no shortage of Buccaneer points on Sunday.
-Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)
Jay’s Best Prop Bet
It’s the GOAT vs. the Kid. Brady and Mahomes clash on the big stage in Tampa Bay. Both offenses are LOADED with studs. This leads to prolific offenses which the Buccaneers and Chiefs both have. KC averages 29.6 PPG and TB averages 30.8 PPG. For my prop bet, I am picking a score to occur in the first five minutes of the game (-130). Both defenses have played well in the playoffs, but that won’t steer me away from this decision. Mahomes and Brady can handle any defense, and with weapons like Tyreke Hill, Chris Godwin, Travis Kelce, Mike Evans, and many more, scoring won’t be hard for these two teams.
-Jay Patel (@jpatel2444)
Jay’s NFL Picks Record: 12-8
Emily’s Best Prop Bets
Patrick Mahomes and Co. are back in the Super Bowl and ready to repeat! For my best bets I will focus on the Kansas City Chiefs side of the ball. Tyreek “Cheetah” Hill went off last time against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with 13 receptions, 269 yards, and 3 TD’s. I don’t see the Bucs being able to slow down the Cheetah which is why I am taking Tyreek Hill to hit over 90.5 yards receiving. In his past two postseason games, Hill posted 110 yards and 172 yards. Not to mention that in last season’s Super Bowl, Hill had 105 yards receiving. You could say the Cheetah is a golden pick in the postseason.
Travis Kelce is an absolute beast on the field and his connection with Patrick Mahomes is one of the best QBs to TEs in the league. Therefore, my second best bet will be for Travis Kelce to secure over 7.5 receptions from his QB. Against the Bucs in the regular season, Kelce posted 8 receptions for 82 yards. When his QB is in trouble or in need of finding a quick target, Kelce is the security blanket and I see Head Coach Andy Reid heavily targeting his TE in the Super Bowl. As for Kelce’s previous two postseason games, he posted 13 receptions and 8 receptions. Look for 87 to have a big day, and I am not talking about Rob Gronkowski.
Logan’s Best Prop Bets
I like the OVER 24.5 on Tom Brady completions (-115). Vegas is trying to tell us something: The total (56.5) is the second-highest in Super Bowl history, and Brady’s passing yard over/under is set at 300 yards, even though he averaged only 289.6 in the regular season: The desert expects this to be a shootout.
Even though Leonard Fournette has been running the ball well, Brady is not going to leave any bullets in the chamber Sunday night. In his last 8 appearances, Brady has never teed it up less than 35 times, and has let it fly 48 or more times in 5 of those games, including 50 against Seattle in SB XLIX and 62 vs. Atlanta in SB LI. If Brady gets anywhere close to that kind of volume, this will cover easily.
If TB12 throws completions at his 2020 clip of 65.7%, 38 attempts will get us there, which Brady eclipsed 11 times in the regular season. Arians will opt to throw enough to keep pace with KC, and Brady will be on target as the game opens up late.
For those looking for a little more value, go with the 4th quarter to be the highest scoring quarter (+240). To me, this is about both quarterbacks and their ability to heat up as the game goes along.
Historically, Brady takes a little bit to find the range in the Super Bowl: his teams have never scored a touchdown in the first quarter of the big game, and of his 6 interceptions, all but 2 have come in the first half. TB’s MO has been to feel the game out early and come roaring home; the highest scoring quarter for his teams has been the 4th in 3 of his last 4 Super Bowl appearances, including 4th-quarter comebacks against Atlanta and Seattle, and a 10-point 4th quarter to pull away from the Rams in his last victory.
One has to look back no farther than last year’s Super Bowl to see how Mahomes can catch fire late in the game: he and the Chiefs ripped off a 21-0 run in the last 6:13 to pull away against San Francisco.
This season, the 2nd quarter has been the highest-scoring quarter for both of these teams, but the familiarity that these two teams have with one another and the stout play of both defenses will stop the Chiefs from going on one of their patented runs. Too much firepower on both sides to keep down forever though, and I am banking on both QBs to be at their best at the end of the game.
–Logan Sella (@logansella)
Trent’s Best Prop Bet
For my best prop bet, I’m taking Tom Brady to not throw and interception at +152. That’s right, there is a plus money payout for the GOAT not to turn the ball over through the air. Do I even need to say anything else? This is a huge market overreaction due to his poor outing against the Packers in the NFC Championship. By the time this game rolls around, Touchdown Tom will have had two weeks to prepare for the big game and he’s going to be ready. Barring any fluky tipped passes (like two weeks ago), we should be in the clear with this one. Oh, and this is a home game for the Bucs which I feel like no one is really talking about.
-Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)
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