By: David Vasquez
Spread: Carolina Panthers -7/Tampa Bay +7
Kickoﬀ: September 12 2019, 8:20 PM ET | Bank of America Stadium
Analysis and Prediction:
When researching stats for this matchup I found a some very interesting tidbits. in 2018 Tampa Bay was 7-7-2 ATS in all games while Carolina was 7-9. As an away underdog, Tampa Bay was 3-3-2. Carolina was 3-2 as a home favorite. With equal rest Carolina was 5-3, while Tampa Bay was 5-4-1. Ready for the kicker? In divisional games, the entirety of the NFC South was 3-3!
Suﬃce to say ATS these teams had incredibly similar records. It’s hard to ﬁnd any sort of edge with either of these teams. They are both talented on the defensive side of the ball, and have QBs susceptible to turnovers. Winston’s oﬀensive line ranked 25th in pass protection in 2018 , and him being the most turnover happy QB in the league, it doesn’t surprise me he threw 3 INTS, dropped a fumble, and got sacked three times Week 1. Seriously, the Bucs were in the game against the 49ers until 2 of Jameis’ picks were returned for TDs. However, Cam Newton didn’t play much better he threw an INT, got sacked three times, and posted a 15 QBR. The Panthers were facing stiﬀer competition against the defending NFC champions and they actually kept their game close almost covering last week. All that said seven points is a lot to lay down in the NFL.
Divisional rivals are so hard to predict either way, Tampa Bay is actually 2-1 ATS in their last 3 games against Carolina. In a larger sample size Carolina is 5-3 ATS against Tampa Bay. Enough with numbers though. What I am sure of is Carolina has eight ﬁrst rounders on their defensive side of the ball. Not to mention Christian McCaﬀrey is a MONSTER and almost single handily beat the LA Rams. I’d make the case that going with the Under is the safest play in this game. The Panthers let me down last week, but it was only by a half point and against a very solid squad. I’m trusting the Panthers to get back to that early 2018 form.
Pick: Panthers -7